{"scheme":"rc-ledger-v1","head":{"seq":171,"rowHash":"701b83877744a73bcf2d08beacc917c8b79214f0fb986ac80e8836aaadd476a2"},"genesis":{"prevHash":"sha256(\"rc-ledger-genesis-v1\\n\" || <raw bytes of CONSTITUTION.md at chain birth>)","note":"The chain is rooted in the exact text of the governing Constitution in force at genesis."},"count":2,"nextAfterSeq":null,"rows":[{"seq":170,"prevHash":"547738995def62d98bc2a87ccd7b931b183b43d7be1823ba56e1a1296e9b3452","agent":"daily-brief","skill":"MarketData+BriefComposer","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-07-30","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.66,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-07-30","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.68,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-07-30","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.23,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-06-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-07-31","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7489.72,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":true,"reason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","confidence":0.92},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-07-30","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.66,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-07-30","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.68,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-07-30","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.23,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-06-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-07-31","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7489.72,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-07-30","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.66,"prevAsOf":"2026-07-23","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.58},{"asOf":"2026-07-30","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.68,"prevAsOf":"2026-07-29","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.67},{"asOf":"2026-07-30","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.23,"prevAsOf":"2026-07-29","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.22},{"asOf":"2026-06-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-05-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-07-31","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7489.72,"prevAsOf":"2026-07-30","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7437.63}]},"briefId":90,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.66%","caption":"30-year fixed mortgage moved 8 bps higher to 6.66%, extending the week's upward drift."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.68%","caption":"10-year Treasury yielded 4.68%, up 1 bp on the day, anchoring the long end of the curve."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.23%","caption":"2-year Treasury at 4.23%, tracking the 10-year with a 1 bps gain, keeping the belly flat."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds unchanged at 3.63% from the prior business day, holding policy steady."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,489.72","caption":"S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, a modest session that posed no rate shock."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"The 198 bps mortgage-Treasury spread signals lenders are pricing significant duration and credit risk; origination incentive remains thin for borrowers, but the stable curve (10–2 at 45 bps) leaves refinance pressure subdued and MSR duration risk contained.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1992,"completionTokens":340},"summary":"Thirty-year mortgages rose 8 bps to 6.66%, keeping the spread over 10-year Treasuries near 198 bps as the yield curve flattens.","headline":"Mortgage-to-Treasury Spread Holds Wide as 30-Year Fixed Climbs to 6.66%","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":93},"confidence":0.92,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-01T16:01:37.707Z","rowHash":"701b83877744a73bcf2d08beacc917c8b79214f0fb986ac80e8836aaadd476a2","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.92,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-01T16:01:37.707Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":93,\"briefId\":91,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage spread widens as 30-year fixed climbs to 6.66%\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.66%, an 8 bps jump that outpaced Treasury moves and compressed originator margins.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.66%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury held near 4.68%, leaving the mortgage–10Y spread at 198 bps—a widened risk for lock pricing.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.68%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury flat at 4.23%, keeping the curve at 45 bps as the Fed holds funds at 3.63%.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.23%\"},{\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72—context for broader rate stability despite mortgage sector volatility.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,489.72\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"The 8 bps single-day move in mortgages outpaces the flat 10Y, widening lock risk for lenders and sharpening refinance disincentive—margin compression and MSR seasoning accelerate if this gap holds.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"A sharp 8 bps jump in the 30-year fixed rate pushes the mortgage–10Y spread to 198 bps, signaling renewed compression risk in origination margins.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":305,\"promptTokens\":1992}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.92,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-07-23\",\"prevValue\":6.58,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.66},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-07-29\",\"prevValue\":4.67,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.68},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-07-29\",\"prevValue\":4.22,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.23},{\"asOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-05-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-31\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"prevValue\":7437.63,\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"unit\":\"index\",\"value\":7489.72}],\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.66},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.68},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.23},{\"asOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-31\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7489.72}]}},\"prevHash\":\"3280d3efc192666449ba67d5fdd6fde5022a6459ca1a04d066fa493d3ba99b24\",\"seq\":171,\"skill\":\"MarketData+BriefComposer\",\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.66},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.68},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-30\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.23},{\"asOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-31\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7489.72}]}"}]}