{"scheme":"rc-ledger-v1","head":{"seq":298,"rowHash":"b5267756cc9d0a16f23b81a947a975e91bb443400a9f4d0dab7e3434928d057e"},"genesis":{"prevHash":"sha256(\"rc-ledger-genesis-v1\\n\" || <raw bytes of CONSTITUTION.md at chain birth>)","note":"The chain is rooted in the exact text of the governing Constitution in force at genesis."},"count":26,"nextAfterSeq":null,"rows":[{"seq":273,"prevHash":"cfea95367a5be8f8f1dddcfbff850bf63f51eecbffc62a93ac6ec831ec4f6ca0","agent":"daily-brief","skill":"MarketData+BriefComposer","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-13","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.67,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-14","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.68,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-14","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.17,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-14","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7785.76,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":true,"reason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","confidence":0.89},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-13","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.67,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-14","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.68,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-14","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.17,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-14","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7785.76,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-08-13","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.67,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-06","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.69},{"asOf":"2026-08-14","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.68,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.63},{"asOf":"2026-08-14","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.17,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.15},{"asOf":"2026-07-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-06-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-08-14","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7785.76,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7798.99}]},"briefId":135,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.67%","caption":"30-year fixed mortgage at 6.67%, down 2 bps today, still anchored above historical averages."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.68%","caption":"10-year Treasury rose 5 bps to 4.68%, tracking a slight pullback in long-end safety demand."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.17%","caption":"2-year Treasury up 2 bps to 4.17%, keeping near-term policy expectations stable."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63%, no new signals from the policy rate."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,785.76","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,785.76, reflecting modest equity stability alongside modest Treasury moves."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"With the 30-year fixed now at 6.67% and the 10–2 spread locked at 51 basis points, the yield curve remains compressed but mortgage originators have a marginal rate relief to pass through; the 199 basis point mortgage–Treasury spread offers no outsized incentive for refi, keeping purchase-focused volumes under pressure.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1992,"completionTokens":341},"summary":"The 10-year pushed higher by 5 basis points while the 30-year fixed fell 2 basis points, leaving the 10–2 curve still shallow at 51 basis points.","headline":"Mortgage rates slip as Treasury long-end catches up to near-term tightness","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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The 51 bps positive curve slope also keeps refi incentive muted for near-term volume.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1992,"completionTokens":321},"summary":"10Y Treasury rose 5 bps while 30Y mortgage fell 2 bps, leaving the mortgage premium at 199 bps—a cushion that insulates originators from immediate rate compression.","headline":"Mortgage–Treasury spread holds wide as long-end yields tick up","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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Lenders pricing tighter margins must hedge duration exposure or accept prepay drag in any rally below 6.50%.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1992,"completionTokens":383},"summary":"30-year fixed slipped 2 bps to 6.67% as the 10Y climbed 5 bps, pushing the origination-cost wedge to 199 bps.","headline":"Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as 10Y Rallies and Rate Lock Weakens","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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originators."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.72%","caption":"The 10-year Treasury jumped 4 bps to 4.72%, the highest reading in the window, pulling long rates higher and widening the mortgage–10Y premium."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"The 2-year Treasury rose 2 bps to 4.19%, reinforcing a flat curve (just 53 bps) that continues to suppress refi activity and duration hedging incentives."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"The Fed Funds Rate remains anchored at 3.63%, unchanged since early July, a steady backdrop while the curve and spreads do the work."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,691.76","caption":"The S&P 500 closed at 7,691.76, stable and undisturbed by the small move in rates, suggesting no market stress is driving the Treasury repricing."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"Widening mortgage spreads signal lenders face tighter net margins despite stable rates; with the curve still flat, refinance incentives remain muted and prepay risk low, but origination economics are under pressure if spreads don't recover.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1992,"completionTokens":434},"summary":"The 10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.72%, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 195 bps while the 30-year fixed held steady at 6.67%, leaving the 10Y–2Y curve at a slim 53 bps.","headline":"Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10Y Treasury Climbs; Curve Stays Flat","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":141},"confidence":0.78,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-19T16:01:53.682Z","rowHash":"c509aeb95bc490cbea5cb0f516d1be4c35c1e0e4578cee264d6543afbf59f07d","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.78,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-19T16:01:53.682Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":141,\"briefId\":139,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10Y Treasury Climbs; Curve Stays Flat\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"The 30-year fixed mortgage dipped 2 bps to 6.67%, a small move that masks the real story: the 195 bps spread to the 10-year is now the day's widest, compressing net yield for originators.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.67%\"},{\"caption\":\"The 10-year Treasury jumped 4 bps to 4.72%, the highest reading in the window, pulling long rates higher and widening the mortgage–10Y premium.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.72%\"},{\"caption\":\"The 2-year Treasury rose 2 bps to 4.19%, reinforcing a flat curve (just 53 bps) that continues to suppress refi activity and duration hedging incentives.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"The Fed Funds Rate remains anchored at 3.63%, unchanged since early July, a steady backdrop while the curve and spreads do the work.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"The S&P 500 closed at 7,691.76, stable and undisturbed by the small move in rates, suggesting no market stress is driving the Treasury repricing.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,691.76\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"Widening mortgage spreads signal lenders face tighter net margins despite stable rates; with the curve still flat, refinance incentives remain muted and prepay risk low, but origination economics are under pressure if spreads don't recover.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"The 10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.72%, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 195 bps while the 30-year fixed held steady at 6.67%, leaving the 10Y–2Y curve at a slim 53 bps.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":434,\"promptTokens\":1992}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.78,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-06\",\"prevValue\":6.69,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.67},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-17\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-14\",\"prevValue\":4.68,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.72},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-17\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-14\",\"prevValue\":4.17,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"label\":\"S&P 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constrained."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.71%","caption":"10-year Treasury at 4.71%, down 1 bp, as the long end flattens relative to the curve."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, holding the short end while the curve compresses to 52 bps."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, leaving policy stable and refi incentive structurally muted."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,691.76","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,691.76, signaling continued equity resilience and potential headwinds for rate-sensitive mortgage demand."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"With the 30–10 spread near 200 bps and the curve flattening, refi incentive remains capped; origination volume will stay dependent on purchase demand rather than refinance waves. Servicers face sustained prepay headwinds despite cheaper rates.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":369},"summary":"The 10–2 curve compresses to 52 bps while 30-year mortgages hold 196 bps over the 10-year Treasury, testing incentive thresholds for refi-eligible borrowers.","headline":"Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Flattens","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Flattens\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed eased 2 bps to 6.67%, but spread to the 10-year Treasury widened to 196 bps—a structural cushion that keeps refi appeal constrained.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.67%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury at 4.71%, down 1 bp, as the long end flattens relative to the curve.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.71%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, holding the short end while the curve compresses to 52 bps.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, leaving policy stable and refi incentive structurally muted.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,691.76, signaling continued equity resilience and potential headwinds for rate-sensitive mortgage demand.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,691.76\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"With the 30–10 spread near 200 bps and the curve flattening, refi incentive remains capped; origination volume will stay dependent on purchase demand rather than refinance waves. 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Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":143},"confidence":0.78,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-20T11:01:44.583Z","rowHash":"a5c72eac869084790000d94b5f90524a8dff543dec38463e1cac446c3cefadbb","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.78,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-20T11:01:44.583Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":143,\"briefId\":141,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage–Treasury Spread Widens to 196 bps as Long Rates Ease\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed fell 2 bps to 6.67%, trimming the absolute cost of origination at the margin.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.67%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury at 4.71%, down 1 bp, anchoring the long end and keeping refinance incentives muted for underwater borrowers.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.71%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, reinforcing a near-zero steepener and reducing portfolio roll-down returns.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed funds unchanged at 3.63% since July, cementing rate expectations and limiting near-term curve movement.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds 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economics.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":357,\"promptTokens\":1990}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.78,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-06\",\"prevValue\":6.69,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.67},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-17\",\"prevValue\":4.72,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.71},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-17\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"label\":\"S&P 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and servicing uncertainty.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":351},"summary":"Treasury long end softens fractionally while short rates hold; mortgage pricing inches lower but credit remains wide.","headline":"Mortgage Spreads Hold Firm as Curve Flattens; 30y-10y Gap Widens to 196 bps","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":144},"confidence":0.78,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-20T16:01:52.584Z","rowHash":"872da23becabe94b0244f03bfc3f17a37d1eae5df29a2975277d89a32364b9e7","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.78,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-20T16:01:52.584Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":144,\"briefId\":142,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spreads Hold Firm as Curve Flattens; 30y-10y Gap Widens to 196 bps\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed sits at 6.67%, down 2 bps in a day but still pricing duration and credit at levels that constrain refi velocity.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.67%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury at 4.71%, down 1 bp, remains the anchor for conforming loan pricing.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.71%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, keeping short duration anchored and near-term fed path priced in.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed Funds at 3.63% (last reading 2026-07-01) reflects policy stance; no fresh move signals continuity in rate path expectations.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed 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500","value":7707.98,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":true,"reason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","confidence":0.92},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-19","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.65,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-19","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-19","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7707.98,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed 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to 4.65%, driving the larger long-end repricing."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year held flat at 4.19%, showing near-term rate expectations stable."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%"},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,707.98","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,707.98 (as of 2026-08-19), equity strength supporting demand backdrop."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"The 200 bp spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year Treasuries gives originators breathing room on volume, but the 46 bp 10–2 curve flattening signals rate-sensitive refi demand remains muted; near-term MSR prepay risk stays modest.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1988,"completionTokens":310},"summary":"Long-end yields retreated while the 30-year mortgage rate edged lower, pushing the origination-rate premium to 200 bps—a structurally wide cushion for lenders.","headline":"Mortgage Spread Widens as Treasuries Fall; 10–2 Curve Flattens to 46 bps","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":145},"confidence":0.92,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-20T21:00:50.595Z","rowHash":"5fc3215e9362789573a113fe7537c8bdf9431b5b6695cd9672a1e72390db337d","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.92,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-20T21:00:50.595Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":145,\"briefId\":143,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spread Widens as Treasuries Fall; 10–2 Curve Flattens to 46 bps\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed fell 2 bps to 6.65%, the smallest one-day move in this batch.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury dropped 6 bps to 4.65%, driving the larger long-end repricing.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year held flat at 4.19%, showing near-term rate expectations stable.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,707.98 (as of 2026-08-19), equity strength supporting demand backdrop.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,707.98\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"The 200 bp spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year Treasuries gives originators breathing room on volume, but the 46 bp 10–2 curve flattening signals rate-sensitive refi demand remains muted; near-term MSR prepay risk stays modest.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"Long-end yields retreated while the 30-year mortgage rate edged lower, pushing the origination-rate premium to 200 bps—a structurally wide cushion for lenders.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":310,\"promptTokens\":1988}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.92,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"prevValue\":6.67,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"prevValue\":4.71,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"prevValue\":7691.76,\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"unit\":\"index\",\"value\":7707.98}],\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7707.98}]}},\"prevHash\":\"872da23becabe94b0244f03bfc3f17a37d1eae5df29a2975277d89a32364b9e7\",\"seq\":288,\"skill\":\"MarketData+BriefComposer\",\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7707.98}]}"},{"seq":289,"prevHash":"5fc3215e9362789573a113fe7537c8bdf9431b5b6695cd9672a1e72390db337d","agent":"ledger","skill":"AnchorLedger","model":"","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://opentimestamps.org","name":"OpenTimestamps calendars"}],"outputs":{"method":"opentimestamps","headSeq":288,"headHash":"5fc3215e9362789573a113fe7537c8bdf9431b5b6695cd9672a1e72390db337d","proofStatus":"pending"},"confidence":null,"decision":"applied","decisionReason":"Anchored chain head seq 288 to OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation).","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-20T22:00:48.264Z","rowHash":"992ed014faf701368527931b7ee532fc96ea235b353a4bcfa6ef0503a6e4428d","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"ledger\",\"confidence\":null,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-20T22:00:48.264Z\",\"decision\":\"applied\",\"decisionReason\":\"Anchored chain head seq 288 to OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation).\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"\",\"outputs\":{\"headHash\":\"5fc3215e9362789573a113fe7537c8bdf9431b5b6695cd9672a1e72390db337d\",\"headSeq\":288,\"method\":\"opentimestamps\",\"proofStatus\":\"pending\"},\"prevHash\":\"5fc3215e9362789573a113fe7537c8bdf9431b5b6695cd9672a1e72390db337d\",\"seq\":289,\"skill\":\"AnchorLedger\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"OpenTimestamps calendars\",\"url\":\"https://opentimestamps.org\"}]}"},{"seq":290,"prevHash":"992ed014faf701368527931b7ee532fc96ea235b353a4bcfa6ef0503a6e4428d","agent":"curator","skill":"Curator","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[],"outputs":{"changed":false,"metrics":{"moduleDemand":{"about":0,"tools":0,"experience":73,"newsletter":0},"subscriberCount":5,"latestPostAgeDays":3,"publishedPostCount":17,"weeklyDownloadsTotal":800},"curation":{"order":["experience","newsletter","about","tools"],"rationale":"Experience dominates with 73 moduleDemand events, establishing it as the clear lead. Newsletter follows: 17 published posts with the latest only 3 days old signals active, fresh authorship. Tools ranks third despite 800 weekly downloads—a solid engagement floor—but post recency and publishing cadence make newsletter the stronger second draw. About closes as default."}},"confidence":null,"decision":"skipped","decisionReason":"Experience dominates with 73 moduleDemand events, establishing it as the clear lead. Newsletter follows: 17 published posts with the latest only 3 days old signals active, fresh authorship. Tools ranks third despite 800 weekly downloads—a solid engagement floor—but post recency and publishing cadence make newsletter the stronger second draw. 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About closes as default.\"},\"metrics\":{\"latestPostAgeDays\":3,\"moduleDemand\":{\"about\":0,\"experience\":73,\"newsletter\":0,\"tools\":0},\"publishedPostCount\":17,\"subscriberCount\":5,\"weeklyDownloadsTotal\":800}},\"prevHash\":\"992ed014faf701368527931b7ee532fc96ea235b353a4bcfa6ef0503a6e4428d\",\"seq\":290,\"skill\":\"Curator\",\"sources\":[]}"},{"seq":291,"prevHash":"b86be431b7b2855e33a14c9c57b9cee683144f8cd480c7248f35f88fdeff2179","agent":"daily-brief","skill":"MarketData+BriefComposer","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-19","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.65,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-19","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7641.16,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":true,"reason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","confidence":0.86},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-19","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.65,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-19","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7641.16,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.67},{"asOf":"2026-08-19","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.65,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-18","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.71},{"asOf":"2026-08-19","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-18","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.19},{"asOf":"2026-07-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-06-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7641.16,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7707.98}]},"briefId":144,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.65%","caption":"30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps on the day."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.65%","caption":"10-year Treasury at 4.65%, down 6 bps; curve steepens as 2-year sits flat at 4.19%."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury unmoved at 4.19%, holding the spread structure as front end resists further easing."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July 1, with no interim moves reflected in current readings."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,641.16","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,641.16; equity stability offsets duration concerns in rate positioning."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"Operators face an expanding mortgage–Treasury spread at a time when origination volume remains sensitive to absolute rate levels; the 200 bps cushion reflects servicer and investor caution on prepay risk, and refinance incentives remain muted with 30-year rates holding above 6.6%.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1988,"completionTokens":356},"summary":"The 10–2 curve spread hit 46 bps while the 30-year mortgage–10-year spread expanded to 200 bps, signaling persistent secondary-market pricing pressure even as near-term rate moves flatten.","headline":"Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Steepens; 30-Year Rate Holds Above 6.6%","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Steepens; 30-Year Rate Holds Above 6.6%\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps on the day.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury at 4.65%, down 6 bps; curve steepens as 2-year sits flat at 4.19%.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury unmoved at 4.19%, holding the spread structure as front end resists further easing.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July 1, with no interim moves reflected in current readings.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,641.16; equity stability offsets 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should expect continued refinance headwinds and MSR compression.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1988,"completionTokens":403},"summary":"A modest dip in mortgage rates and a steeper 10Y decline leave the 30–10 spread at 200 bps, still a formidable hurdle for origination volume.","headline":"30-Year Mortgage Drops 2 bps as Treasury Curve Flattens; Refi Window Narrows","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":147},"confidence":0.86,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-21T16:00:58.816Z","rowHash":"703309b353f6529a05fb643de8f929dcddf036b2dbe132b3061d824f5c49586f","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.86,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-21T16:00:58.816Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":147,\"briefId\":145,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"30-Year Mortgage Drops 2 bps as Treasury Curve Flattens; Refi Window Narrows\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year mortgage rate fell 2 bps to 6.65%, but the spread to 10-year Treasuries remains at 200 bps—a persistent drag on refi volume.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury yielded 4.65%, down 6 bps in one day and anchoring the mortgage-Treasury differential.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury held at 4.19 unchanged, keeping the curve nearly flat at 46 bps between the 10 and 2-year points.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July 1, reflecting a stable policy backdrop despite recent near-term rate moves.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,641.16 as of August 20, a barometer for broader risk appetite amid the mortgage and curve dynamics.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,641.16\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"The 2 bp drop in 30-year mortgage rates to 6.65% offers minimal refi incentive given the 200 bps spread to the 10Y, and the flattening curve—10–2 at just 46 bps—signals limited upside relief; operators should expect continued refinance headwinds and MSR compression.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"A modest dip in mortgage rates and a steeper 10Y decline leave the 30–10 spread at 200 bps, still a formidable hurdle for origination volume.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":403,\"promptTokens\":1988}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.86,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"prevValue\":6.67,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"prevValue\":4.71,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-18\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"S&P 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Mortgage","value":6.65,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.67},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.65},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.19},{"asOf":"2026-07-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-06-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7641.16,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7707.98}]},"briefId":146,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.65%","caption":"30-year fixed at 6.65%, down 2 bps — minimal daily movement signals steady origination demand."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.69%","caption":"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, dragging the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury unchanged at 4.19%, holding the front end flat against the 10-year."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds rate at 3.63%, last updated 2026-07-01, remains unchanged pending next policy move."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,641.16","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,641.16 — equity stability provides no tail hedging incentive for fixed-income duration extension."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"The 50 basis point 10Y–2Y spread leaves little room for refi incentive and signals persistent prepay risk; operators should monitor whether the curve steepens or flattens further, as sustained inversion of the spread would begin to ease refinance pressure.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":328},"summary":"A modest uptick in the 10-year yield paired with stable short rates keeps the mortgage-Treasury spread near 196 basis points.","headline":"30-Year Mortgage Holds Firm at 6.65% as Treasury Curve Flattens","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":148},"confidence":0.92,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-21T21:01:47.159Z","rowHash":"5782767446d3f00eafaa15f924062098ac54898403dee839fa2296a23a335568","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.92,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-21T21:01:47.159Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":148,\"briefId\":146,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"30-Year Mortgage Holds Firm at 6.65% as Treasury Curve Flattens\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed at 6.65%, down 2 bps — minimal daily movement signals steady origination demand.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, dragging the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.69%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury unchanged at 4.19%, holding the front end flat against the 10-year.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed funds rate at 3.63%, last updated 2026-07-01, remains unchanged pending next policy move.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,641.16 — equity stability provides no tail hedging incentive for fixed-income duration extension.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,641.16\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"The 50 basis point 10Y–2Y spread leaves little room for refi incentive and signals persistent prepay risk; operators should monitor whether the curve steepens or flattens further, as sustained inversion of the spread would begin to ease refinance pressure.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"A modest uptick in the 10-year yield paired with stable short rates keeps the mortgage-Treasury spread near 196 basis points.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":328,\"promptTokens\":1990}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.92,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"prevValue\":6.67,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.65,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":7707.98,\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"unit\":\"index\",\"value\":7641.16}],\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7641.16}]}},\"prevHash\":\"703309b353f6529a05fb643de8f929dcddf036b2dbe132b3061d824f5c49586f\",\"seq\":293,\"skill\":\"MarketData+BriefComposer\",\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7641.16}]}"},{"seq":294,"prevHash":"5782767446d3f00eafaa15f924062098ac54898403dee839fa2296a23a335568","agent":"ledger","skill":"AnchorLedger","model":"","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://opentimestamps.org","name":"OpenTimestamps calendars"}],"outputs":{"method":"opentimestamps","headSeq":293,"headHash":"5782767446d3f00eafaa15f924062098ac54898403dee839fa2296a23a335568","proofStatus":"pending"},"confidence":null,"decision":"applied","decisionReason":"Anchored chain head seq 293 to OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation).","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-21T22:00:47.828Z","rowHash":"5a98d6575db35879ca900d3f55d0f1e3eb9f2f36ab666637c453c49c5f5098f8","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"ledger\",\"confidence\":null,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-21T22:00:47.828Z\",\"decision\":\"applied\",\"decisionReason\":\"Anchored chain head seq 293 to OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation).\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"\",\"outputs\":{\"headHash\":\"5782767446d3f00eafaa15f924062098ac54898403dee839fa2296a23a335568\",\"headSeq\":293,\"method\":\"opentimestamps\",\"proofStatus\":\"pending\"},\"prevHash\":\"5782767446d3f00eafaa15f924062098ac54898403dee839fa2296a23a335568\",\"seq\":294,\"skill\":\"AnchorLedger\",\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"OpenTimestamps calendars\",\"url\":\"https://opentimestamps.org\"}]}"},{"seq":295,"prevHash":"5a98d6575db35879ca900d3f55d0f1e3eb9f2f36ab666637c453c49c5f5098f8","agent":"curator","skill":"Curator","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[],"outputs":{"changed":true,"metrics":{"moduleDemand":{"about":0,"tools":0,"experience":69,"newsletter":0},"subscriberCount":5,"latestPostAgeDays":4,"publishedPostCount":17,"weeklyDownloadsTotal":785},"curation":{"order":["experience","newsletter","tools","about"],"rationale":"Experience dominates demand at 69 events, justifying its lead position. Newsletter follows by virtue of recent publishing activity (4 days since latest post, 17 published posts total), signaling active content production. Tools ranks third based on measurable engagement (785 weekly downloads). About remains last as a foundational module with zero measured demand."}},"confidence":null,"decision":"applied","decisionReason":"Experience dominates demand at 69 events, justifying its lead position. Newsletter follows by virtue of recent publishing activity (4 days since latest post, 17 published posts total), signaling active content production. Tools ranks third based on measurable engagement (785 weekly downloads). About remains last as a foundational module with zero measured demand.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-22T09:03:18.410Z","rowHash":"28643a7e5b8a35773d868a35b56ecccb6a9f154d5540bf7ee285f62e99c65bb7","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"curator\",\"confidence\":null,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-22T09:03:18.410Z\",\"decision\":\"applied\",\"decisionReason\":\"Experience dominates demand at 69 events, justifying its lead position. Newsletter follows by virtue of recent publishing activity (4 days since latest post, 17 published posts total), signaling active content production. Tools ranks third based on measurable engagement (785 weekly downloads). About remains last as a foundational module with zero measured demand.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"changed\":true,\"curation\":{\"order\":[\"experience\",\"newsletter\",\"tools\",\"about\"],\"rationale\":\"Experience dominates demand at 69 events, justifying its lead position. Newsletter follows by virtue of recent publishing activity (4 days since latest post, 17 published posts total), signaling active content production. Tools ranks third based on measurable engagement (785 weekly downloads). About remains last as a foundational module with zero measured demand.\"},\"metrics\":{\"latestPostAgeDays\":4,\"moduleDemand\":{\"about\":0,\"experience\":69,\"newsletter\":0,\"tools\":0},\"publishedPostCount\":17,\"subscriberCount\":5,\"weeklyDownloadsTotal\":785}},\"prevHash\":\"5a98d6575db35879ca900d3f55d0f1e3eb9f2f36ab666637c453c49c5f5098f8\",\"seq\":295,\"skill\":\"Curator\",\"sources\":[]}"},{"seq":296,"prevHash":"28643a7e5b8a35773d868a35b56ecccb6a9f154d5540bf7ee285f62e99c65bb7","agent":"daily-brief","skill":"MarketData+BriefComposer","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-21","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7674.37,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":true,"reason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","confidence":0.92},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-21","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7674.37,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.67},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.65},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.19},{"asOf":"2026-07-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-06-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-08-21","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7674.37,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-20","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7641.16}]},"briefId":147,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.65%","caption":"30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.65%, a modest decline that masks deteriorating economics if wholesale funding costs hold."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.69%","caption":"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps and squeezing secondary market margins."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury held flat at 4.19%, keeping the 10–2 curve at 50 bps and signaling no near-term policy reversal."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, consistent with a stable policy stance through mid-August."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,674.37","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,674 reflects equity stability, but rates action dominates mortgage economics this week."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"Wider mortgage spreads despite a small rate drop signal lender margin compression and sticky refinance disincentives—origination incentives remain weak and prepay risk stays muted at elevated coupons.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":349},"summary":"The 30-year fixed ticked down 2 bps to 6.65% while the 10-year rose 4 bps to 4.69%, pushing the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps.","headline":"Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields climb; curve stays shallow","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":149},"confidence":0.92,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-22T11:01:37.212Z","rowHash":"592b06e018026917fe8e74fc7fb441978f8f578b7fd9350d9e30e3e445fe8ecf","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.92,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-22T11:01:37.212Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":149,\"briefId\":147,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields climb; curve stays shallow\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.65%, a modest decline that masks deteriorating economics if wholesale funding costs hold.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps and squeezing secondary market margins.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.69%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury held flat at 4.19%, keeping the 10–2 curve at 50 bps and signaling no near-term policy reversal.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, consistent with a stable policy stance through 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fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"prevValue\":6.67,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.65,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"prevValue\":7641.16,\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"unit\":\"index\",\"value\":7674.37}],\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed 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500","value":7674.37,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":false,"reason":"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 304 bps.","confidence":0},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-21","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7674.37,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed 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Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, anchoring mortgage pricing as the long end of the curve steepens."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, holding steady while the 10–2 spread compresses to just 50 bps, the tightest recent signal of Fed policy constraints."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July 1, now trailing a 30-year mortgage 304 bps higher—a structural lock on origination margins."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,674.37","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,674.37, marking equities in a holding pattern as macro uncertainty keeps long rates sticky."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"At 6.65%, the 30-year mortgage is pricing in persistent refi risk but origination volume will feel the margin squeeze; the 50 bp flattening in the 10–2 curve hints at recession anxiety, which may suppress purchase demand before it eases rates.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":394},"summary":"The 10–2 curve tightened while the 30-year fixed climbed 196 bps above the 10-year, signaling rising origination friction even as refinance incentives vanish.","headline":"Mortgage Spread Blows Out as Long Rates Rally; Curve Flattens to 50 bps","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."}},"confidence":0,"decision":"held","decisionReason":"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 304 bps.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-22T16:01:43.957Z","rowHash":"a504da0dfdbb231f7d68a3d08a6bfaa1f9d5183237f07a43637c1cb6aa5d8549","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-22T16:01:43.957Z\",\"decision\":\"held\",\"decisionReason\":\"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 304 bps.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spread Blows Out as Long Rates Rally; Curve Flattens to 50 bps\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps on the day but locked in a 196 bps premium to the 10-year Treasury.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, anchoring mortgage pricing as the long end of the curve steepens.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.69%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, holding steady while the 10–2 spread compresses to just 50 bps, the tightest recent signal of Fed policy constraints.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July 1, now trailing a 30-year mortgage 304 bps higher—a structural lock on 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vanish.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":394,\"promptTokens\":1990}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0,\"pass\":false,\"reason\":\"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 304 bps.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"prevValue\":6.67,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.65,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"label\":\"S&P 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Treasury","value":"4.69%","caption":"10-year Treasury climbed 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the curve compression and lifting the mortgage–Treasury wedge."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, leaving the 10–2 spread at just 50 bps and signaling continued monetary tightness."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed Funds Rate steady at 3.63% as of early July; no change in the policy anchor."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,674.37","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,674.37; equities hold firm despite rate volatility."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"The flattening curve and widening mortgage spread signal tighter origination margins: servicers face steeper competitive pressure on rate locks as net servicing income compresses, while refinance incentives remain muted in a 6.65% rate environment.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":375},"summary":"The 30-year mortgage edged down 2 bps while the 10-year Treasury climbed 4 bps, pushing the mortgage–Treasury spread to 196 bps and leaving the 10–2 curve at just 50 bps.","headline":"Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10-Year Yields Rise; Curve Flattens to 50 Bps","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":150},"confidence":0.92,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-22T21:00:42.066Z","rowHash":"b5267756cc9d0a16f23b81a947a975e91bb443400a9f4d0dab7e3434928d057e","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.92,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-22T21:00:42.066Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":150,\"briefId\":148,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10-Year Yields Rise; Curve Flattens to 50 Bps\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps — but spread to 10-year Treasury has expanded to 196 bps, narrowing lender cushion.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury climbed 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the curve compression and lifting the mortgage–Treasury wedge.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.69%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, leaving the 10–2 spread at just 50 bps and signaling continued monetary tightness.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed Funds Rate steady at 3.63% as of early July; no change in the policy anchor.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,674.37; equities hold firm despite rate volatility.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,674.37\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"The flattening curve and widening mortgage spread signal tighter origination margins: servicers face steeper competitive pressure on rate locks as net servicing income compresses, while refinance incentives remain muted in a 6.65% rate environment.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"The 30-year mortgage edged down 2 bps while the 10-year Treasury climbed 4 bps, pushing the mortgage–Treasury spread to 196 bps and leaving the 10–2 curve at just 50 bps.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":375,\"promptTokens\":1990}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.92,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"prevValue\":6.67,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.65,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"prevValue\":7641.16,\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"unit\":\"index\",\"value\":7674.37}],\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7674.37}]}},\"prevHash\":\"a504da0dfdbb231f7d68a3d08a6bfaa1f9d5183237f07a43637c1cb6aa5d8549\",\"seq\":298,\"skill\":\"MarketData+BriefComposer\",\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7674.37}]}"}]}