{"scheme":"rc-ledger-v1","head":{"seq":297,"rowHash":"a504da0dfdbb231f7d68a3d08a6bfaa1f9d5183237f07a43637c1cb6aa5d8549"},"genesis":{"prevHash":"sha256(\"rc-ledger-genesis-v1\\n\" || <raw bytes of CONSTITUTION.md at chain birth>)","note":"The chain is rooted in the exact text of the governing Constitution in force at genesis."},"count":2,"nextAfterSeq":null,"rows":[{"seq":296,"prevHash":"28643a7e5b8a35773d868a35b56ecccb6a9f154d5540bf7ee285f62e99c65bb7","agent":"daily-brief","skill":"MarketData+BriefComposer","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-21","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7674.37,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":true,"reason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","confidence":0.92},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-21","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7674.37,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.67},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.69,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.65},{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.19,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-19","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.19},{"asOf":"2026-07-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-06-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-08-21","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7674.37,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-20","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7641.16}]},"briefId":147,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.65%","caption":"30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.65%, a modest decline that masks deteriorating economics if wholesale funding costs hold."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.69%","caption":"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps and squeezing secondary market margins."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury held flat at 4.19%, keeping the 10–2 curve at 50 bps and signaling no near-term policy reversal."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, consistent with a stable policy stance through mid-August."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,674.37","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,674 reflects equity stability, but rates action dominates mortgage economics this week."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"Wider mortgage spreads despite a small rate drop signal lender margin compression and sticky refinance disincentives—origination incentives remain weak and prepay risk stays muted at elevated coupons.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":349},"summary":"The 30-year fixed ticked down 2 bps to 6.65% while the 10-year rose 4 bps to 4.69%, pushing the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps.","headline":"Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields climb; curve stays shallow","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":149},"confidence":0.92,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-22T11:01:37.212Z","rowHash":"592b06e018026917fe8e74fc7fb441978f8f578b7fd9350d9e30e3e445fe8ecf","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0.92,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-22T11:01:37.212Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":149,\"briefId\":147,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields climb; curve stays shallow\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.65%, a modest decline that masks deteriorating economics if wholesale funding costs hold.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps and squeezing secondary market margins.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.69%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury held flat at 4.19%, keeping the 10–2 curve at 50 bps and signaling no near-term policy reversal.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, consistent with a stable policy stance through 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Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, anchoring mortgage pricing as the long end of the curve steepens."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.19%","caption":"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, holding steady while the 10–2 spread compresses to just 50 bps, the tightest recent signal of Fed policy constraints."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July 1, now trailing a 30-year mortgage 304 bps higher—a structural lock on origination margins."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,674.37","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,674.37, marking equities in a holding pattern as macro uncertainty keeps long rates sticky."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"At 6.65%, the 30-year mortgage is pricing in persistent refi risk but origination volume will feel the margin squeeze; the 50 bp flattening in the 10–2 curve hints at recession anxiety, which may suppress purchase demand before it eases rates.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":1990,"completionTokens":394},"summary":"The 10–2 curve tightened while the 30-year fixed climbed 196 bps above the 10-year, signaling rising origination friction even as refinance incentives vanish.","headline":"Mortgage Spread Blows Out as Long Rates Rally; Curve Flattens to 50 bps","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."}},"confidence":0,"decision":"held","decisionReason":"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 304 bps.","constitutionVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-08-22T16:01:43.957Z","rowHash":"a504da0dfdbb231f7d68a3d08a6bfaa1f9d5183237f07a43637c1cb6aa5d8549","preimage":"rc-ledger-v1\n{\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"confidence\":0,\"constitutionVersion\":5,\"createdAt\":\"2026-08-22T16:01:43.957Z\",\"decision\":\"held\",\"decisionReason\":\"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 304 bps.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage Spread Blows Out as Long Rates Rally; Curve Flattens to 50 bps\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps on the day but locked in a 196 bps premium to the 10-year Treasury.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.65%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, anchoring mortgage pricing as the long end of the curve steepens.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.69%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, holding steady while the 10–2 spread compresses to just 50 bps, the tightest recent signal of Fed policy constraints.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.19%\"},{\"caption\":\"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July 1, now trailing a 30-year mortgage 304 bps higher—a structural lock on origination margins.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,674.37, marking equities in a holding pattern as macro uncertainty keeps long rates sticky.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,674.37\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"At 6.65%, the 30-year mortgage is pricing in persistent refi risk but origination volume will feel the margin squeeze; the 50 bp flattening in the 10–2 curve hints at recession anxiety, which may suppress purchase demand before it eases rates.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"The 10–2 curve tightened while the 30-year fixed climbed 196 bps above the 10-year, signaling rising origination friction even as refinance incentives vanish.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":394,\"promptTokens\":1990}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0,\"pass\":false,\"reason\":\"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 304 bps.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-13\",\"prevValue\":6.67,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.65,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-19\",\"prevValue\":4.19,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-06-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"prevValue\":7641.16,\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"unit\":\"index\",\"value\":7674.37}],\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7674.37}]}},\"prevHash\":\"592b06e018026917fe8e74fc7fb441978f8f578b7fd9350d9e30e3e445fe8ecf\",\"seq\":297,\"skill\":\"MarketData+BriefComposer\",\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.65},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.69},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-20\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.19},{\"asOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-21\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7674.37}]}"}]}