{"scheme":"rc-ledger-v1","head":{"seq":329,"rowHash":"09871926e3ca95e9aefd09e8c3015c87189685e5c65c28f475b9323992a65a64"},"genesis":{"prevHash":"sha256(\"rc-ledger-genesis-v1\\n\" || <raw bytes of CONSTITUTION.md at chain birth>)","note":"The chain is rooted in the exact text of the governing Constitution in force at genesis."},"count":3,"nextAfterSeq":null,"rows":[{"seq":327,"prevHash":"55403a7688c4d69bc0550f902cd57e4a17fd948b845f097cc182fdc8b98eeb01","agent":"daily-brief","skill":"MarketData+BriefComposer","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-25","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.64,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-25","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.17,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-25","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7677.28,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":true,"reason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","confidence":0.84},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-08-20","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-08-25","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.64,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-08-25","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.17,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-07-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-08-25","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7677.28,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-08-20","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.65,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-13","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.67},{"asOf":"2026-08-25","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.64,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-24","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.7},{"asOf":"2026-08-25","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.17,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-24","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.24},{"asOf":"2026-07-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-06-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-08-25","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7677.28,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-24","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7652.86}]},"briefId":160,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.65%","caption":"30-year fixed fell 2 bps to 6.65%, the only modest relief in a week of longer-rate pullback."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.64%","caption":"10-year Treasury dropped 6 bps to 4.64%, compressing the spread to the 2-year to just 47 bps."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.17%","caption":"2-year Treasury fell 7 bps to 4.17%, joining the flattening move as near-term rate cuts remain priced in."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds unchanged at 3.63% as of the last reading, holding steady above the terminal 10-year level."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,677.28","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,677, stable through the rates decline, showing no risk-off signal driving treasury demand."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"A 201 bp mortgage-treasury spread signals sustained margin pressure on origination; with the 10–2 curve nearly flat, refinance incentives remain muted despite yesterday's decline in long-rate anchors, keeping prepay risk modest but lock-in pull unlikely to accelerate.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":2062,"completionTokens":364},"summary":"The 10–2 curve compressed to 47 bps while the 30-year fixed edged down 2 bps, leaving the mortgage-treasury spread at its widest point in the validated dataset.","headline":"Mortgage-to-Treasury spread widens to 201 bps as curve flattens and long rates retreat","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"Lenders face persistent rate compression in origination: borrowers see only marginal mortgage relief despite Treasury rally, which narrows refi incentive and pressures purchase volume unless Treasury yields sustain a sharper decline. Wider mortgage spreads also signal elevated prepay risk and hedging costs if rates stabilize here.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":2062,"completionTokens":354},"summary":"The 10-year Treasury fell 6 bps to 4.64% while the 30-year fixed mortgage ticked down just 2 bps, leaving the spread between them at 201 bps—near the upper end of recent ranges.","headline":"Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as Long-End Yields Compress","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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