{"scheme":"vaspera-mesh-ledger-v2","chainId":"ryancolkitt-daily","head":{"seq":92,"rowHash":"0ec309bfcc4f51260e6199f8943a4383447262bca6241944e7207e65c8714478"},"genesis":{"prevHash":"sha256(\"vaspera-mesh-genesis-v2\\n\" || \"ryancolkitt-daily\\n\" || <raw bytes of CONSTITUTION.md at chain birth>)","note":"The v2 chain is rooted in its chain id + the exact text of the governing Constitution in force at genesis. The prior rc-ledger-v1 chain is the pre-v2 era."},"count":4,"nextAfterSeq":null,"rows":[{"seq":89,"prevHash":"9950e3a80441e637abb57b531fdd2a6610024c81b3b591c3470d14e7754a0b2f","chainId":"ryancolkitt-daily","agent":"daily-brief","action":"MarketData+BriefComposer","model":"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-09-03","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.71,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-09-08","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.8,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-09-08","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.39,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-08-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-09-09","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7636.36,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"outputs":{"gate":{"pass":false,"reason":"Brief cites a figure not in the data: 117 bps.","confidence":0},"market":{"sources":[{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US","asOf":"2026-09-03","name":"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.71,"seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10","asOf":"2026-09-08","name":"FRED · 10-Year Treasury","value":4.8,"seriesId":"DGS10"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2","asOf":"2026-09-08","name":"FRED · 2-Year Treasury","value":4.39,"seriesId":"DGS2"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS","asOf":"2026-08-01","name":"FRED · Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"seriesId":"FEDFUNDS"},{"url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500","asOf":"2026-09-09","name":"FRED · S&P 500","value":7636.36,"seriesId":"SP500"}],"readings":[{"asOf":"2026-09-03","unit":"percent","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":6.71,"prevAsOf":"2026-08-27","seriesId":"MORTGAGE30US","prevValue":6.66},{"asOf":"2026-09-08","unit":"percent","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":4.8,"prevAsOf":"2026-09-04","seriesId":"DGS10","prevValue":4.78},{"asOf":"2026-09-08","unit":"percent","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":4.39,"prevAsOf":"2026-09-04","seriesId":"DGS2","prevValue":4.37},{"asOf":"2026-08-01","unit":"percent","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-07-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-09-09","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7636.36,"prevAsOf":"2026-09-08","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7673.52}]},"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.71%","caption":"30-year fixed mortgages rose 5 bps to 6.71%, tracking a gentle yield curve move higher."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.8%","caption":"10-year Treasury at 4.8%, up 2 bps; the 191 bps mortgage premium reflects lender pricing amid continued credit and duration risk."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.39%","caption":"2-year Treasury at 4.39%, matching the 10-year's 2 bps gain; the 10–2 spread of 41 bps remains shallow, constraining refi incentive."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%","caption":"Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63%, holding 117 bps below the current 30-year mortgage."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,636.36","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,636.36; equity momentum has not shifted rate markets materially in the last session."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"The 30-year mortgage-to-10-year spread has expanded to 191 bps, signaling persistent origination margin pressure; a steeper 10–2 curve (41 bps) does not offset the wider 30-year premium, keeping purchase and refi economics tight for operators.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":2062,"completionTokens":384},"summary":"10–2 curve flattening to 41 bps coincides with a 5 bps pop in 30-year mortgages and a 191 bps lender spread.","headline":"Mortgage Spread Widens as 30-Year Holds at 6.71% Amid Modest Curve Steepening","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. 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Rate","value":3.63,"prevAsOf":"2026-07-01","seriesId":"FEDFUNDS","prevValue":3.63},{"asOf":"2026-09-09","unit":"index","label":"S&P 500","value":7636.36,"prevAsOf":"2026-09-08","seriesId":"SP500","prevValue":7673.52}]},"briefId":204,"composed":{"spec":{"root":{"kind":"Stack","children":[{"cols":3,"kind":"Grid","children":[{"kind":"Stat","label":"30-Year Fixed Mortgage","value":"6.76%","caption":"30-year fixed jumped to 6.76%, up 5 bps overnight, while the Fed funds rate held at 3.63%."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"10-Year Treasury","value":"4.83%","caption":"10-year Treasury edged up 3 bps to 4.83%, lagging the mortgage move."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"2-Year Treasury","value":"4.43%","caption":"2-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.43%, keeping the curve nearly flat at 40 bps."},{"kind":"Stat","label":"Fed Funds Rate","value":"3.63%"},{"kind":"Stat","label":"S&P 500","value":"7,636.36","caption":"S&P 500 at 7,636.36 as equity volatility likely drove safe-haven bond demand."}]},{"kind":"Text","text":"What it means for your shop","emphasis":"mono"},{"kind":"Callout","text":"Lenders face a tightening secondary market or rising duration risk: the 193 bps spread signals either stronger investor demand for MBS or pricing pressure on loan sales. Origination margins compress unless you're already locked into forward sales, and MSR values benefit from the wider cushion against prepay if rates stabilize here.","tone":"info"}]},"title":"markets & rates"},"label":"autonomous · AI-generated","usage":{"promptTokens":2062,"completionTokens":312},"summary":"The 30-year mortgage gained 5 bps while the 10-year Treasury rose only 3 bps, pushing the mortgage-Treasury spread to 193 bps.","headline":"Mortgage spread widens as 30-year fixed climbs to 6.76%, outpacing Treasury moves","disclaimer":"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."},"artifactId":206},"confidence":0.92,"decision":"published","decisionReason":"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.","policyVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-09-10T21:00:56.907Z","rowHash":"f5a81491829984246047728ce19b087cb3e05949c45aa08fdd26cbb747d0b36f","preimage":"vaspera-mesh-ledger-v2\n{\"action\":\"MarketData+BriefComposer\",\"agent\":\"daily-brief\",\"chainId\":\"ryancolkitt-daily\",\"confidence\":0.92,\"createdAt\":\"2026-09-10T21:00:56.907Z\",\"decision\":\"published\",\"decisionReason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5\",\"outputs\":{\"artifactId\":206,\"briefId\":204,\"composed\":{\"disclaimer\":\"Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.\",\"headline\":\"Mortgage spread widens as 30-year fixed climbs to 6.76%, outpacing Treasury moves\",\"label\":\"autonomous · AI-generated\",\"spec\":{\"root\":{\"children\":[{\"children\":[{\"caption\":\"30-year fixed jumped to 6.76%, up 5 bps overnight, while the Fed funds rate held at 3.63%.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"value\":\"6.76%\"},{\"caption\":\"10-year Treasury edged up 3 bps to 4.83%, lagging the mortgage move.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.83%\"},{\"caption\":\"2-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.43%, keeping the curve nearly flat at 40 bps.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"value\":\"4.43%\"},{\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"value\":\"3.63%\"},{\"caption\":\"S&P 500 at 7,636.36 as equity volatility likely drove safe-haven bond demand.\",\"kind\":\"Stat\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"value\":\"7,636.36\"}],\"cols\":3,\"kind\":\"Grid\"},{\"emphasis\":\"mono\",\"kind\":\"Text\",\"text\":\"What it means for your shop\"},{\"kind\":\"Callout\",\"text\":\"Lenders face a tightening secondary market or rising duration risk: the 193 bps spread signals either stronger investor demand for MBS or pricing pressure on loan sales. Origination margins compress unless you're already locked into forward sales, and MSR values benefit from the wider cushion against prepay if rates stabilize here.\",\"tone\":\"info\"}],\"kind\":\"Stack\"},\"title\":\"markets & rates\"},\"summary\":\"The 30-year mortgage gained 5 bps while the 10-year Treasury rose only 3 bps, pushing the mortgage-Treasury spread to 193 bps.\",\"usage\":{\"completionTokens\":312,\"promptTokens\":2062}},\"gate\":{\"confidence\":0.92,\"pass\":true,\"reason\":\"5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.\"},\"market\":{\"readings\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-10\",\"label\":\"30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-09-03\",\"prevValue\":6.71,\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":6.76},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"label\":\"10-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-09-08\",\"prevValue\":4.8,\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.83},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"label\":\"2-Year Treasury\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-09-08\",\"prevValue\":4.39,\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":4.43},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-01\",\"label\":\"Fed Funds Rate\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-07-01\",\"prevValue\":3.63,\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"unit\":\"percent\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"label\":\"S&P 500\",\"prevAsOf\":\"2026-09-08\",\"prevValue\":7673.52,\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"unit\":\"index\",\"value\":7636.36}],\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-10\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.76},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.83},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.43},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7636.36}]}},\"policyVersion\":5,\"prevHash\":\"bc9282203fca51370c933b5561dad4aced9f8ab7f4587a642e10a20dfda2699a\",\"seq\":91,\"sources\":[{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-10\",\"name\":\"FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage\",\"seriesId\":\"MORTGAGE30US\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\",\"value\":6.76},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"name\":\"FRED · 10-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS10\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\",\"value\":4.83},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"name\":\"FRED · 2-Year Treasury\",\"seriesId\":\"DGS2\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2\",\"value\":4.43},{\"asOf\":\"2026-08-01\",\"name\":\"FRED · Fed Funds Rate\",\"seriesId\":\"FEDFUNDS\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS\",\"value\":3.63},{\"asOf\":\"2026-09-09\",\"name\":\"FRED · S&P 500\",\"seriesId\":\"SP500\",\"url\":\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500\",\"value\":7636.36}]}"},{"seq":92,"prevHash":"f5a81491829984246047728ce19b087cb3e05949c45aa08fdd26cbb747d0b36f","chainId":"ryancolkitt-daily","agent":"ledger","action":"AnchorLedger","model":"","inputs":{},"sources":[{"url":"https://opentimestamps.org","name":"OpenTimestamps calendars"}],"outputs":{"method":"opentimestamps","headSeq":91,"headHash":"f5a81491829984246047728ce19b087cb3e05949c45aa08fdd26cbb747d0b36f","proofStatus":"pending"},"confidence":null,"decision":"applied","decisionReason":"Anchored chain head seq 91 to OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation).","policyVersion":5,"createdAt":"2026-09-10T22:00:54.034Z","rowHash":"0ec309bfcc4f51260e6199f8943a4383447262bca6241944e7207e65c8714478","preimage":"vaspera-mesh-ledger-v2\n{\"action\":\"AnchorLedger\",\"agent\":\"ledger\",\"chainId\":\"ryancolkitt-daily\",\"confidence\":null,\"createdAt\":\"2026-09-10T22:00:54.034Z\",\"decision\":\"applied\",\"decisionReason\":\"Anchored chain head seq 91 to OpenTimestamps (pending Bitcoin confirmation).\",\"inputs\":{},\"model\":\"\",\"outputs\":{\"headHash\":\"f5a81491829984246047728ce19b087cb3e05949c45aa08fdd26cbb747d0b36f\",\"headSeq\":91,\"method\":\"opentimestamps\",\"proofStatus\":\"pending\"},\"policyVersion\":5,\"prevHash\":\"f5a81491829984246047728ce19b087cb3e05949c45aa08fdd26cbb747d0b36f\",\"seq\":92,\"sources\":[{\"name\":\"OpenTimestamps calendars\",\"url\":\"https://opentimestamps.org\"}]}"}]}