daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.58 · 2026-07-23
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.71 · 2026-07-23
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.37 · 2026-07-23
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7411.98 · 2026-07-24

Decision: held · computed in 20275 ms

Brief cites a figure not in the data: 187 bps.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": false,
    "reason": "Brief cites a figure not in the data: 187 bps.",
    "confidence": 0
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.58,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.71,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.37,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-24",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7411.98,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.58,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.71,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.37,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-24",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7411.98,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ]
  },
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.58%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed at 6.58%, 187 bps above the 10-year, reflecting elevated origination cost relative to deposit and hedging benchmarks."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.71%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 4.71%, anchoring the intermediate curve as long-duration demand outpaces shorter-end yields."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.37%",
                "caption": "2-year at 4.37%, narrowing the 10-2 spread to just 34 bps and indicating market pricing of sustained policy rates."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds holding at 3.63% as of early June, now likely lagging the market's expectation of unchanged policy through mid-summer."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,411.98",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,411.98, signaling risk-on appetite that may sustain demand for mortgage-backed duration despite origination headwinds."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "A flattening 10-2 curve (34 bps) combined with the 30-year mortgage anchored 187 bps above 10-years signals mounting margin pressure on new originations and refinance incentives remain subdued at 6.58%.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1790,
      "completionTokens": 345
    },
    "summary": "Long rates compress while the 30-year mortgage rate holds firm, squeezing origination economics.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10-2 Flattens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  }
}

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