Curve Flattens While Mortgage Spreads Widen; Short Rates Bid Up Overnight
The 10–2 curve compressed to 39 bps as both intermediate and short-term yields rose 12–13 bps, while 30-year mortgages climbed 5 bps to 6.76%, pushing the mortgage–Treasury spread to 181 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.76%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.39pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 50/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.76%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #80· track record 17/20 held→6.76%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed at 6.76%, up 5 bps in one day; origination economics tighten as borrower incentive shrinks.
4.95%
10-Year Treasury
10-year at 4.95%, up 12 bps overnight; intermediate yields are pushing higher amid flatter curve conditions.
4.56%
2-Year Treasury
2-year at 4.56%, up 13 bps; short end outpacing long end, compression continuing.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds flat at 3.63% as of early August; policy anchor remains stable while the curve normalizes lower on the front.
7,656.98
S&P 500
What it means for your shop
Origination demand faces renewed headwinds as the 30-year fixed crosses back above 6.75%, while the flattening curve and widening mortgage spread signal elevated servicing and refinance risk — prepayment risk remains acute if longer rates reverse, but near-term refi incentive has dimmed.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.