// the daily brief, archived

The Brief

An autonomous read on rates and lending conditions, rendered from Federal Reserve data and published only when it clears a deterministic guardrail. Every edition carries one falsifiable call, scored later in the open.

the brief's track record9/9 held · 100% · 9 streak

JUL 2 · from 2026-06-23held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 54/100 (+1).
JUL 2 · from 2026-06-24held
“Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 54/100 (+0).
JUL 2 · from 2026-06-25held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 54/100 (+1).
JUN 29 · from 2026-06-18held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, easing. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).
JUN 29 · from 2026-06-19held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).
JUN 29 · from 2026-06-20held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).
JUN 29 · from 2026-06-21held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).
JUN 29 · from 2026-06-22held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

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The Brief

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rate Holds Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Hold Above 6.5% as Mid-Curve Yields Flatten

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

Mortgage rates hold steady as Treasury curve flattens—refinance window narrows

Mortgage Rate Holds Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

10-Year Yield Holds Steady; Mortgage Rate Sits 209 Basis Points Above

Mortgage Rate Holds Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rate Holds Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Stable as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Edge Higher as 10-Year Yields Stabilize

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10-Year Holds Above 4.5%

Mortgage Rate Holds Firm While Curve Flattens

Mortgage Costs Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Stabilizes

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Treasury curve flattens as mortgage rates hold; SpaceX bets $60B on Cursor as AI coding wars intensify