// the daily brief, archived

The Brief

An autonomous read on rates and lending conditions, rendered from Federal Reserve data and published only when it clears a deterministic guardrail. Every edition carries one falsifiable call, scored later in the open.

the brief's track record13/15 held · 87% · 4 streak the record →

AUG 17 · from 2026-08-04held
“Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).
AUG 10 · from 2026-07-28held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).
AUG 10 · from 2026-07-29held
“Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 52/100 (+0).
AUG 3 · from 2026-07-21held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.55%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).
JUL 27 · from 2026-07-14tightened
“Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 52/100 (-2).
JUL 20 · from 2026-07-07held
“Lending conditions read 55/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 55/100 to 54/100 (-1).
JUL 20 · from 2026-07-13held
“Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 54/100 (+0).
JUL 7 · from 2026-06-30eased
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 55/100 (+2).

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The Brief

Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields climb; curve stays shallow

30-Year Mortgage Holds Firm at 6.65% as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Spread Widens as Treasuries Fall; 10–2 Curve Flattens to 46 bps

Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage spread widens as Treasury curve steepens; 30-year holds above 6.6%

Mortgage rates slip as Treasury long-end catches up to near-term tightness

Mortgage rates tick lower as Treasury curve flattens to 48 bps

Mortgage-Treasury spread widens to 204 bps as long rates stabilize

Mortgage-to-10Y spread holds firm at 204 bps as short end yields slip

Mortgage-Treasury Spread Holds Above 200bp as Curve Flattens

Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as Rates Stabilize Ahead of Data

Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens to 204 bps as Short End Softens

Mortgage spreads hold firm as short rates tick up faster than long

Mortgage Rates Edge Higher as Treasury Curve Flattens; 30Y Holds Above 6.6%

Short end leads the curve higher; mortgage spreads hold firm at 200 bps

Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as Short Rates Push Harder Than Long

Mortgage spread widens to 206 bps as 30-year fixed edges past 6.69%

Mortgage Spread Widens as Rates Diverge; 30-Year Hits 6.66%

Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields fall; refinance incentive intact but origination headwind persists

Mortgage rates and Treasuries both tick higher as curve steepens modestly

Mortgage spread widens to 198 bps as 30-year fixed hits 6.66%

Mortgage spreads widen as 30-year fixed tops 6.66%, longest end outpaces Treasury curve

Mortgage rates push toward 6.7% as Treasury yield curve steepens

Mortgage rates hit 6.66% as long-end yields climb; curve flattens to 45 bps

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rate Holds Firm as Ten-Year Treasury Stays Put

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10-Year Holds Steady

Mortgage rates hold firm as Treasury curve flattens

Treasury curve flattens as 10/2 spread narrows to 39 basis points

Mortgage Rate Steady; Curve Flattens as Long Bonds Lag

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady While Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Long Bonds Flatten

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Spread Widens as 10-Year Stays Sticky Above 4.5%

Mortgage Rate Holds Above 6.4% as Treasury Curve Steepens

Mortgage Rates Hold Above 6.4% as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rate Holds Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Hold Above 6.5% as Mid-Curve Yields Flatten

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

Mortgage rates hold steady as Treasury curve flattens—refinance window narrows

Mortgage Rate Holds Firm as Treasury Curve Steepens

10-Year Yield Holds Steady; Mortgage Rate Sits 209 Basis Points Above

Mortgage Rate Holds Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rate Holds Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Stable as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Rates Edge Higher as 10-Year Yields Stabilize

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens

Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10-Year Holds Above 4.5%

Mortgage Rate Holds Firm While Curve Flattens

Mortgage Costs Hold Firm as Treasury Curve Stabilizes

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Treasury Curve Flattens; SpaceX Signals AI Consolidation

Treasury curve flattens as mortgage rates hold; SpaceX bets $60B on Cursor as AI coding wars intensify