Ryan Colkitt
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The Record

A publication that keeps its own score.

The daily brief makes exactly one falsifiable call — never a prediction, only a reading of the numbers in force. Later, deterministic code re-measures the same metric from fresh, cited data and logs how it aged. No model grades its own past words. Win or lose, it's all here.

18/22
calls held
82%
held rate
—
current streak
  1. SEP 14 · from 2026-09-01tightened

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 50/100 (-2).

  2. SEP 14 · from 2026-09-03held

    “Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 51/100 to 50/100 (-1).

  3. SEP 7 · from 2026-08-25tightened

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 51/100 (-2).

  4. SEP 7 · from 2026-08-31held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 51/100 (-1).

  5. AUG 31 · from 2026-08-18held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve positively sloped.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

  6. AUG 24 · from 2026-08-11held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.69%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).

  7. AUG 24 · from 2026-08-13held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

  8. AUG 17 · from 2026-08-04held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).

  9. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-28held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).

  10. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-29held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 52/100 (+0).

  11. AUG 3 · from 2026-07-21held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.55%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).

  12. JUL 27 · from 2026-07-14tightened

    “Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 52/100 (-2).

  13. JUL 20 · from 2026-07-07held

    “Lending conditions read 55/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 55/100 to 54/100 (-1).

  14. JUL 20 · from 2026-07-13held

    “Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 54/100 (+0).

  15. JUL 7 · from 2026-06-30eased

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 55/100 (+2).

  16. JUL 7 · from 2026-07-02held

    “Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 55/100 (+1).

  17. JUL 7 · from 2026-07-06held

    “Lending conditions read 55/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 55/100 to 55/100 (+0).

  18. JUL 6 · from 2026-06-26held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 54/100 (+1).

  19. JUL 2 · from 2026-06-23held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 54/100 (+1).

  20. JUL 2 · from 2026-06-24held

    “Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 54/100 (+0).

  21. JUN 29 · from 2026-06-18held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, easing. 30-year fixed at 6.47%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

  22. JUN 17 · from 2026-06-17held

    “The 10Y–2Y Treasury spread sits at 0.40pp — the curve is flat.”

    10Y–2Y spread moved from 0.4pp to 0.4pp (+0pp).

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