Ryan Colkitt
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The Record

A publication that keeps its own score.

The daily brief makes exactly one falsifiable call — never a prediction, only a reading of the numbers in force. Later, deterministic code re-measures the same metric from fresh, cited data and logs how it aged. No model grades its own past words. Win or lose, it's all here.

20/30
calls held
67%
held rate
—
current streak
  1. OCT 12 · from 2026-09-29tightened

    “Lending conditions read 45/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 7.03%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 45/100 to 40/100 (-5).

  2. OCT 12 · from 2026-10-01held

    “Lending conditions read 41/100 — Tight, tightening. 30-year fixed at 7.28%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 41/100 to 40/100 (-1).

  3. OCT 5 · from 2026-09-22tightened

    “Lending conditions read 44/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 44/100 to 41/100 (-3).

  4. OCT 5 · from 2026-09-23tightened

    “Lending conditions read 45/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 45/100 to 41/100 (-4).

  5. SEP 28 · from 2026-09-15tightened

    “Lending conditions read 49/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.76%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 49/100 to 44/100 (-5).

  6. SEP 28 · from 2026-09-17held

    “Lending conditions read 45/100 — Tight, tightening. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 45/100 to 44/100 (-1).

  7. SEP 21 · from 2026-09-08tightened

    “Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 51/100 to 45/100 (-6).

  8. SEP 21 · from 2026-09-10tightened

    “Lending conditions read 50/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.76%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 50/100 to 45/100 (-5).

  9. SEP 14 · from 2026-09-01tightened

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 50/100 (-2).

  10. SEP 14 · from 2026-09-03held

    “Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 51/100 to 50/100 (-1).

  11. SEP 7 · from 2026-08-25tightened

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 51/100 (-2).

  12. SEP 7 · from 2026-08-31held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 51/100 (-1).

  13. AUG 31 · from 2026-08-18held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve positively sloped.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

  14. AUG 24 · from 2026-08-11held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.69%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).

  15. AUG 24 · from 2026-08-13held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).

  16. AUG 17 · from 2026-08-04held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).

  17. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-28held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).

  18. AUG 10 · from 2026-07-29held

    “Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 52/100 (+0).

  19. AUG 3 · from 2026-07-21held

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.55%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).

  20. JUL 27 · from 2026-07-14tightened

    “Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 52/100 (-2).

  21. JUL 20 · from 2026-07-07held

    “Lending conditions read 55/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 55/100 to 54/100 (-1).

  22. JUL 20 · from 2026-07-13held

    “Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 54/100 (+0).

  23. JUL 7 · from 2026-06-30eased

    “Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.49%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 55/100 (+2).

  24. JUL 7 · from 2026-07-02held

    “Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.43%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”

    Lending Conditions moved from 54/100 to 55/100 (+1).

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