daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.58 · 2026-07-23
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.61 · 2026-07-28
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.26 · 2026-07-28
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7316.15 · 2026-07-29

Decision: published · computed in 21836 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.78
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.58,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-28",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.61,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-28",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.26,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7316.15,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-23",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.58,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-16",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.55
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-28",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.61,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-27",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.65
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-28",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.26,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-27",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.31
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-05-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7316.15,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-28",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7428.78
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 85,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.58%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed climbed 3 bps to 6.58%, keeping origination incentive weak and refi activity suppressed."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.61%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury fell 4 bps to 4.61%, a modest bid that failed to pull mortgage rates down proportionally."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.26%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury dropped 5 bps to 4.26%, steepening the short end while the long end held firm."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%"
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,316.15",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15, a level consistent with steady equity appetite and no panic liquidation of rate risk."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The steepening mortgage premium—now 197 bps over 10-year Treasuries—signals refinance barriers remain elevated and prepay risk stays muted; originators face sustained yield compression and will need volume discipline to offset tighter margins.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 322
    },
    "summary": "The 10Y–2Y curve compressed to 35 bps while 30-year mortgages rose 3 bps to 6.58%, pushing the mortgage-to-10Y spread to 197 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spreads Widen as Treasury Curve Flattens; 30-Year Fixed Holds Above 6.5%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 87
}

This exact row, with its canonical preimage, is public at /api/ledger/export. Recompute its hash with the standalone verifier — it shares no code with this site. The chain head is timestamped into Bitcoin.