daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.66 · 2026-07-30
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.68 · 2026-07-30
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.23 · 2026-07-30
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7489.72 · 2026-07-31

Decision: published · computed in 8087 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.68,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.23,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-31",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7489.72,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-23",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.58
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.68,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-29",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.23,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-29",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.22
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-05-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-31",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7489.72,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-30",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7437.63
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 91,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.66%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage rose to 6.66%, an 8 bps jump that outpaced Treasury moves and compressed originator margins."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.68%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury held near 4.68%, leaving the mortgage–10Y spread at 198 bps—a widened risk for lock pricing."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.23%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury flat at 4.23%, keeping the curve at 45 bps as the Fed holds funds at 3.63%."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%"
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,489.72",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72—context for broader rate stability despite mortgage sector volatility."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The 8 bps single-day move in mortgages outpaces the flat 10Y, widening lock risk for lenders and sharpening refinance disincentive—margin compression and MSR seasoning accelerate if this gap holds.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 305
    },
    "summary": "A sharp 8 bps jump in the 30-year fixed rate pushes the mortgage–10Y spread to 198 bps, signaling renewed compression risk in origination margins.",
    "headline": "Mortgage spread widens as 30-year fixed climbs to 6.66%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 93
}

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