Mortgage Rates Hold Steady While Treasury Curve Flattens
The 30-year fixed sits at 6.55% as the 10-2 spread tightens to just 42 basis points, signaling persistent recession concerns.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.55%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.42pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 54/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.55%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #114· track record 20/30 held→6.55%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed holds at 6.55%, unchanged from recent weeks and well above the refi threshold that would drive portfolio turnover.
4.55%
10-Year Treasury
10-year yields 4.55%, only 42 bps above the 2-year, reflecting market expectations of Fed cuts without a growth rebound.
4.13%
2-Year Treasury
2-year at 4.13% anchors the short end as traders price in near-term rate cuts despite a still-elevated fed funds rate.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds rate sits at 3.63%—data is now a month stale, but reflects the last communicated policy level before any recent moves.
7,572.4
S&P 500
S&P 500 at 7,572 shows equities holding near highs even as the curve flattens, a classic risk-off signal masked by strong tech.
What it means for your shop
Origination volume remains trapped in a narrow band—the 6.55% rate doesn't trigger meaningful refi activity, but the flat curve warns that margin compression and MSR convexity risk are real if the Fed cuts aggressively later this year.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.