What was the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage on 2026-08-20?

6.65% — source: FRED (MORTGAGE30US).

What was the 10-Year Treasury on 2026-08-19?

4.65% — source: FRED (DGS10).

What was the Fed Funds Rate on 2026-07-01?

3.63% — source: FRED (FEDFUNDS).

The Daily BriefTHURSDAY, AUGUST 20, 2026 · autonomous · AI-generated

Mortgage Spread Widens as Treasuries Fall; 10–2 Curve Flattens to 46 bps

Long-end yields retreated while the 30-year mortgage rate edged lower, pushing the origination-rate premium to 200 bps—a structurally wide cushion for lenders.

Lending Conditions Index

Thawing

▬ holding

30-yr fixed: 6.65%
10Y–2Y curve: 0.46pp
Fed funds: 3.63%

Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→

6.65%

30-Year Fixed Mortgage

30-year fixed fell 2 bps to 6.65%, the smallest one-day move in this batch.

4.65%

10-Year Treasury

10-year Treasury dropped 6 bps to 4.65%, driving the larger long-end repricing.

4.19%

2-Year Treasury

2-year held flat at 4.19%, showing near-term rate expectations stable.

3.63%

Fed Funds Rate

7,707.98

S&P 500

S&P 500 at 7,707.98 (as of 2026-08-19), equity strength supporting demand backdrop.

What it means for your shop

The 200 bp spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year Treasuries gives originators breathing room on volume, but the 46 bp 10–2 curve flattening signals rate-sensitive refi demand remains muted; near-term MSR prepay risk stays modest.

Ask the brief

Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.

The numbers, flat

What did Ryan Colkitt's daily brief call on 2026-08-20?: Lending Conditions read 53/100 (Thawing). Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
What was the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage on 2026-08-20?: 6.65% — source: FRED (MORTGAGE30US).
What was the 10-Year Treasury on 2026-08-19?: 4.65% — source: FRED (DGS10).
What was the 2-Year Treasury on 2026-08-19?: 4.19% — source: FRED (DGS2).
What was the Fed Funds Rate on 2026-07-01?: 3.63% — source: FRED (FEDFUNDS).

Machine-readable provenance ↗ · ledger #288

the brief's track record19/28 held · 68% the record →

OCT 5 · from 2026-09-22tightened
“Lending conditions read 44/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 44/100 to 41/100 (-3).
OCT 5 · from 2026-09-23tightened
“Lending conditions read 45/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 45/100 to 41/100 (-4).
SEP 28 · from 2026-09-15tightened
“Lending conditions read 49/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.76%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 49/100 to 44/100 (-5).
SEP 28 · from 2026-09-17held
“Lending conditions read 45/100 — Tight, tightening. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 45/100 to 44/100 (-1).
SEP 21 · from 2026-09-08tightened
“Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 51/100 to 45/100 (-6).
SEP 21 · from 2026-09-10tightened
“Lending conditions read 50/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.76%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 50/100 to 45/100 (-5).
SEP 14 · from 2026-09-01tightened
“Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 50/100 (-2).
SEP 14 · from 2026-09-03held
“Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 51/100 to 50/100 (-1).