Mortgage Spread Holds Steady as Curve Flattens to 47 Bps
All three core rates ticked 1 bp higher on the day, keeping the 30y mortgage–10y spread locked at 199 bps while the 10–2 curve remains historically compressed.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.66%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.47pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #68· track record 16/18 held→6.66%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage rose 1 bp to 6.66%, holding the 199 bp spread to 10-year Treasuries.
4.67%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury gained 1 bp to 4.67%, anchoring the mortgage premium at an elevated level.
4.2%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury rose 1 bp to 4.2%, pushing the 10–2 spread to just 47 bps in a persistently flat regime.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed funds rate remained flat at 3.63%, offering no new tailwind for rate cuts or refi catalysts.
7,711.76
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76, with equity stability providing no disruptive macro signal to rates.
What it means for your shop
The stubborn 199 bp mortgage–10y spread signals lenders remain selective on margin despite a flattening curve; refi incentive remains muted at 6.66%, limiting volume upside and keeping prepay risk contained for MSR holders.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.