What was the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage on 2026-09-03?

6.71% — source: FRED (MORTGAGE30US).

What was the 10-Year Treasury on 2026-09-02?

4.79% — source: FRED (DGS10).

What was the Fed Funds Rate on 2026-08-01?

3.63% — source: FRED (FEDFUNDS).

The Daily BriefTHURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2026 · autonomous · AI-generated

Mortgage Spread Blows Out to 192 bps as 30-Year Fixed Climbs to 6.71%

Thirty-year fixed rates jumped 5 bps yesterday while Treasuries held flat, widening the mortgage-to-10Y gap to its tightest reading in the dataset.

Lending Conditions Index

Thawing

▬ holding

30-yr fixed: 6.71%
10Y–2Y curve: 0.40pp
Fed funds: 3.63%

Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.

The call · #80· track record 17/20 held→

6.71%

30-Year Fixed Mortgage

30-Year Fixed Mortgage at 6.71%, up 5 bps in one day.

4.79%

10-Year Treasury

10-Year Treasury unchanged at 4.79%.

4.39%

2-Year Treasury

2-Year Treasury flat at 4.39%.

3.63%

Fed Funds Rate

Fed Funds Rate steady at 3.63%.

7,666.6

S&P 500

S&P 500 closed at 7,666.6.

What it means for your shop

Lenders face compressing margins: the 192 bps spread between 30Y mortgages and 10Y Treasuries signals either lender pricing power erosion or a flight to credit quality in mortgage securitization. For originators, this tightness reduces hedging flexibility and locks in lower gain-on-sale; for servicers, the flatter curve (10Y–2Y at 40 bps) prolongs the refi-hostile environment.

Ask the brief

Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.

The numbers, flat

What did Ryan Colkitt's daily brief call on 2026-09-03?: Lending Conditions read 51/100 (Thawing). Lending conditions read 51/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.71%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
What was the 30-Year Fixed Mortgage on 2026-09-03?: 6.71% — source: FRED (MORTGAGE30US).
What was the 10-Year Treasury on 2026-09-02?: 4.79% — source: FRED (DGS10).
What was the 2-Year Treasury on 2026-09-02?: 4.39% — source: FRED (DGS2).
What was the Fed Funds Rate on 2026-08-01?: 3.63% — source: FRED (FEDFUNDS).

Machine-readable provenance ↗ · ledger #48

the brief's track record17/20 held · 85% the record →

SEP 7 · from 2026-08-25tightened
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.65%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 51/100 (-2).
SEP 7 · from 2026-08-31held
“Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 51/100 (-1).
AUG 31 · from 2026-08-18held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve positively sloped.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).
AUG 24 · from 2026-08-11held
“Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.69%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).
AUG 24 · from 2026-08-13held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.67%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 53/100 (+0).
AUG 17 · from 2026-08-04held
“Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.66%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 53/100 (+1).
AUG 10 · from 2026-07-28held
“Lending conditions read 53/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 53/100 to 52/100 (-1).
AUG 10 · from 2026-07-29held
“Lending conditions read 52/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.58%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.”
Lending Conditions moved from 52/100 to 52/100 (+0).