Mortgage spread widens as short rates jump, but curve stays flat
Treasury yields climbed across the board Wednesday, pushing the 30-year mortgage to 6.76% while the 10y–2y spread held at just 39 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Thawing
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.76%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.39pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 50/100 — Thawing, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.76%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.76%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed climbed 5 bps to 6.76%, moving in line with a broad short-end repricing.
4.95%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury rose 12 bps to 4.95%, leading the daily move up the curve.
4.56%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury jumped 13 bps to 4.56%, reflecting unchanged Fed funds at 3.63% but market repricing of near-term policy expectations.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
7,656.98
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98, little changed on the day but not a driver of the rates move.
What it means for your shop
The 181 bps mortgage–Treasury spread is wide enough to cushion refi incentive against further near-term rate moves, but a persistently flat curve keeps forward guidance muddled for loan officers sizing pipeline and MSR hedges; origination demand likely remains suppressed unless long rates pull back sharply.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.