Mortgage spreads widen as 30-year fixed jumps 19 basis points to 6.95%
A sharp one-day move in mortgage rates outpaces Treasury weakness, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 201 bps.
Lending Conditions Index
Tight
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 6.95%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.27pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 45/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 6.95%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→6.95%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
30-year fixed mortgage climbed 19 bps in one day to 6.95%, the steepest single-day move in the validated window.
4.94%
10-Year Treasury
10-year Treasury fell 7 bps to 4.94%, but that decline failed to offset the mortgage rate spike.
4.67%
2-Year Treasury
2-year Treasury also fell 7 bps to 4.67%, leaving the curve flat at 27 bps—still inverted by historical measure.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
Fed Funds Rate held at 3.63% as of the last reading, providing no new rate-cut or hike signal.
7,637.76
S&P 500
S&P 500 closed at 7,637.76, flat in the window and offering no risk-off signal to explain the mortgage move.
What it means for your shop
Loan pricing just became materially less competitive for originators, with the cost of capital rising faster than funding costs; refi incentive has retreated sharply, and MSR duration risk has lengthened. Operators locking loans today face tighter margins unless pricing adjusts quickly.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.