Treasury curve flattens to 32 bps as short rates rise; mortgage-to-10Y spread holds firm at 179 bps
The 2-year Treasury jumped 11 bps to 4.92% while the 10-year rose 7 bps to 5.24%, compressing the curve spread as 30-year mortgages climbed 8 bps to 7.03%.
Lending Conditions Index
Tight
▬ holding
- 30-yr fixed
- 7.03%
- 10Y–2Y curve
- 0.32pp
- Fed funds
- 3.63%
Lending conditions read 45/100 — Tight, holding. 30-year fixed at 7.03%, the 10Y–2Y curve flat.
The call · #103· track record 19/28 held→7.03%
30-Year Fixed Mortgage
The 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 7.03%, up 8 bps, keeping the mortgage-to-10Y spread at 179 bps—a steady signal of constrained refi appeal.
5.24%
10-Year Treasury
The 10-year Treasury settled at 5.24%, extending the inversion pressure on the front end.
4.92%
2-Year Treasury
The 2-year Treasury moved to 4.92%, up 11 bps in one day, outpacing the 10-year's 7 bps gain.
3.63%
Fed Funds Rate
The Fed Funds rate remained unchanged at 3.63%, anchoring the lower bound while short-term yields climbed.
7,683.69
S&P 500
The S&P 500 closed at 7,683.69, providing market context for the broader risk sentiment driving curve moves.
What it means for your shop
The flatter curve and sticky mortgage-to-10Y spread (179 bps) signal persistent refi headwinds and reduced origination volume incentive. Servicers should monitor prepayment expectations and MSR duration as the term premium remains compressed and rate volatility favors shorter-duration positioning.
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Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data.