daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.66 · 2026-08-27
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.67 · 2026-08-27
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.2 · 2026-08-27
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7730.99 · 2026-08-27

Decision: published · computed in 6364 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.67,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.2,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7730.99,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.65
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.67,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-26",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.2,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-26",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.19
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7730.99,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-26",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7675.7
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 167,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.66%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed ticked to 6.66%, up 1 bp in a day; the spread-hold suggests no repricing of credit or servicing risk."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.67%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 4.67%, up 1 bp; the overnight move mirrors mortgage action, indicating broad curve steepening pressure."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.2%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury at 4.2%, also up 1 bp; the short end is locked in, keeping the curve inverted at just 47 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of early July; no imminent policy move is pricing into near-term rate expectations."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,730.99",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,730.99; equity strength does not yet suggest flight to safety or duration demand tilting the curve."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination economics remain compressed—the 199 bp mortgage-to-10Y spread leaves minimal room for margin or hedging profit on new production. With the 10Y–2Y curve at only 47 bps, refinance incentive is muted and servicers face persistent extension risk if rates stabilize here.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 370
    },
    "summary": "30-year fixed and 10-year Treasury both climbed 1 bp, leaving secondary market pricing for originators flat against benchmark risk.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-Treasury Spread Holds at 199 Bps as Yields Rise in Lockstep",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 169
}

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