daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.55 · 2026-07-16
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.6 · 2026-07-20
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.21 · 2026-07-20
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7509.2 · 2026-07-21

Decision: published · computed in 14385 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.78
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-16",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.55,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-20",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.6,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-20",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.21,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-21",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7509.2,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-16",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.55,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.6,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.21,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-21",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7509.2,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 78,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.55%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed holding at 6.55%, unchanged from recent levels—no downward momentum to spark refi activity."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.6%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 4.6% sits well above the 2-year at 4.21%, but the 39 bp spread signals market skepticism on economic acceleration."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.21%",
                "caption": "2-year yield of 4.21% reflects Fed funds expectations around 3.63% with limited near-term cut signals."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds effective rate at 3.63% (as of June 1) remains the floor; no new cuts priced in the near curve."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,509.2",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,509 shows risk appetite intact, but equity strength has not translated into yield curve steepening."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "A flattened curve and sticky mortgage rates at 6.55% mean origination volume remains under pressure—no refi wave materializes, and prepay risk stays elevated for servicers holding seasoned pools. Hedging costs climb as duration uncertainty persists.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1790,
      "completionTokens": 341
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed sits at 6.55% while the 10-2 spread compresses to just 39 basis points, signaling investor caution on growth.",
    "headline": "Mortgage rates hold firm as Treasury curve flattens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 80
}

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