daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.76 · 2026-09-10
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.96 · 2026-09-11
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.63 · 2026-09-11
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7619.98 · 2026-09-14

Decision: held · computed in 21360 ms

Brief cites a figure not in the data: 4.80%.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": false,
    "reason": "Brief cites a figure not in the data: 4.80%.",
    "confidence": 0
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.76,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-11",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.96,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-11",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.63,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-14",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7619.98,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.71
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-11",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.96,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-10",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.95
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-11",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-10",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.56
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-14",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7619.98,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-11",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7656.98
      }
    ]
  },
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.76%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed rose 5 bps to 6.76%, staying 180 bps above the 10Y and pricing in outsized credit and duration premium."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.96%",
                "caption": "10Y treasury at 4.96%, up 1 bp, offers limited catalyst for mortgage relief without a move below 4.80%."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.63%",
                "caption": "2Y treasury climbed 7 bps to 4.63%, steepening the curve to 33 bps and signaling persistent policy rate support above near-term cuts."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63%, reflecting no change in terminal rate expectations over the 1-day window."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,619.98",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,619.98 shows equity resilience, but rate curve pressure and mortgage spreads remain headwind to housing demand."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "At 6.76%, the mortgage rate remains anchored well above the 10Y (4.96%), with the 180 bps spread sustaining origination friction; absent a material 10Y decline, neither purchase volume nor refi activity will accelerate, leaving MSR holders exposed to continued slow prepay and servicers managing tight margin under elevated delinquency backdrop.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 382
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed climbed to 6.76% on a modest steepening, leaving purchase rate lock incentive thin and refi appeal dormant.",
    "headline": "Mortgage spreads widen as 10Y softens; origination headwinds persist",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  }
}

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