daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.76 · 2026-09-10
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.97 · 2026-09-14
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.65 · 2026-09-14
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7585.73 · 2026-09-15

Decision: published · computed in 18555 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.78
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.76,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-14",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.97,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-14",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.65,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-15",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7585.73,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-10",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.71
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-14",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.97,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-11",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.96
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-14",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.65,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-11",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-15",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7585.73,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-14",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7619.98
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 218,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.76%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage hit 6.76%, up 5 bps in a single day, reflecting a sharper repricing in the primary market than secondary markets experienced."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.97%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury edged to 4.97%, up only 1 bps, leaving the bulk of the mortgage rise unexplained by benchmark moves alone."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.65%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury rose 2 bps to 4.65%, keeping the 10–2 curve spread flat at 32 bps and suggesting no immediate Fed pivot priced in."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of early August, now stale by two weeks but consistent with a stable short-end through mid-September."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,585.73",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,585.73 reflects a steady equity market decoupled from rate pressure, offering no tail-risk hedge signal for rate volatility ahead."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Lenders face renewed compression on production margins as the 30-year fixed climbs faster than long-duration Treasuries, signaling either a revaluation of mortgage credit risk or a rebalance of secondary market demand — either way, a tighter bid-ask and lower origination volume ahead unless rate locks accelerate.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 397
    },
    "summary": "A 5 bps jump in 30-year mortgage rates outpaced modest Treasury moves, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 179 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage–Treasury Spread Widens as 30-Year Fixed Climbs to 6.76%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 220
}

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