daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.95 · 2026-09-17
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.01 · 2026-09-16
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.74 · 2026-09-16
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7551.81 · 2026-09-16

Decision: published · computed in 20125 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-17",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.95,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-16",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.01,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-16",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.74,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-16",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7551.81,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-17",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.95,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-10",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.76
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-16",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.01,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-15",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-16",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.74,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-15",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-16",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7551.81,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-15",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7585.73
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 220,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.95%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped 19 bps to 6.95% in a single day, outpacing the modest 1 bps move in the 10-year Treasury."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.01%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury edged up just 1 bps to 5.01%, leaving the bulk of mortgage rate pressure to widen the operator spread."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.74%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury rose 7 bps to 4.74%, steepening the 10–2 curve to 27 bps and signaling no near-term Fed cut relief."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%"
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,551.81",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,551.81, with no new equity signal to offset the rising mortgage rate momentum."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The 194 bps spread between 30-year mortgage and 10Y Treasury is now pricing meaningful origination headwinds; operators face compressed margins on new locks and rising incentive for borrowers to sit tight, which will pressure volume unless demand anchors on rate-sensitive segments or purchase activity.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 338
    },
    "summary": "A sharp one-day spike in mortgage rates outpaced Treasury moves, widening the primary mortgage–10Y spread and steepening origination friction.",
    "headline": "Mortgage spread blows out to 194 bps as 30-year fixed jumps 19 bps in single session",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 222
}

This exact row, with its canonical preimage, is public at /api/ledger/export. Recompute its hash with the standalone verifier — it shares no code with this site. The chain head is timestamped into Bitcoin.