daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.66 · 2026-08-27
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.67 · 2026-08-27
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.2 · 2026-08-27
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7711.76 · 2026-08-28

Decision: published · computed in 10402 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.67,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.2,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7711.76,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.65
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.67,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-26",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.2,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-26",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.19
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7711.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7730.99
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 170,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.66%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage rose 1 bp to 6.66%, mirroring Treasury movement without spread widening."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.67%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury climbed 1 bp to 4.67%, setting the core anchor for mortgage pricing."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.2%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury moved 1 bp higher to 4.2%, steepening the curve only to 47 bps as medium-term yields accelerated with long rates."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate held steady at 3.63%, leaving policy unchanged and no fresh hawkish signal."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,711.76",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76, extending the equity backdrop against which duration and credit risk are priced."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The mortgage-to-10-year spread remains anchored at 199 bps, signaling stable pricing architecture despite a flatter curve; origination flow and MSR duration risk are locked in near current levels, but narrowing term premium (10Y–2Y compressed to 47 bps) hints at refinance incentive staying weak if rates stabilize here.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 370
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed rate climbed 1 bp to 6.66%, tracking a parallel 1 bp rise in the 10-year Treasury, while the yield curve compressed to 47 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-to-Treasury Spread Holds Near 200 bps as Curve Flattens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 172
}

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