daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.95 · 2026-09-17
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.01 · 2026-09-18
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.76 · 2026-09-18
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7650.5 · 2026-09-18

Decision: published · computed in 24513 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.89
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-17",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.95,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-18",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.01,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-18",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.76,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-18",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7650.5,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-17",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.95,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-10",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.76
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-18",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.01,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-17",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.94
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-18",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-17",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-18",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7650.5,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-17",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7637.76
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 232,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.95%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed jumped 19 bps in a single day to 6.95%, the sharpest one-day move in the validated window."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.01%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury rose 7 bps to 5.01%, tracking the broader long-end sell-off."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.76%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury climbed 9 bps to 4.76%, trailing the long end and widening the curve to 25 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%"
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,650.5",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,650.5, little changed on the day amid the fixed-income volatility."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "With 30-year mortgages at 6.95% and the mortgage–Treasury spread holding at 194 bps, origination volume faces headwind; the modest curve steepening (10y–2y now 25 bps) offers no refi relief, and MSR holders face mounting prepayment risk if rates consolidate here or fall.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 334
    },
    "summary": "A sharp one-day move in long-dated yields pushed 30-year mortgages higher while the 10y–2y spread widened, signaling fresh pressure on origination incentives.",
    "headline": "Mortgage rates jump 19 bps as Treasury curve steepens; 30-year now 6.95%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 234
}

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