daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.66 · 2026-07-30
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.67 · 2026-07-29
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.22 · 2026-07-29
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7316.15 · 2026-07-29

Decision: published · computed in 17596 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.67,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.22,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7316.15,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-23",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.58
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.67,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-28",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.61
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.22,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-28",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.26
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-05-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-29",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7316.15,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-28",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7428.78
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 86,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.66%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage at 6.66%, up 8 bps in one day."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.67%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 4.67%, up 6 bps; long-end strength compressing the spread to mortgage rates."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.22%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury at 4.22%, down 4 bps, as curve flattens to just 45 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of June 1, nearly 3 full points below the mortgage rate—no near-term relief from policy."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,316.15",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,316.15, signaling stable risk appetite and little flight-to-quality bid supporting Treasuries."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination volume faces continued headwinds at 6.66%—well above the pre-2022 refi threshold—while the 199 bps mortgage-to-10Y spread leaves limited room for rate cuts to spark a wave without significant Fed easing or a structural demand shift. MSR holders face accelerating prepay risk if longer yields fall sharply.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 376
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed mortgage rose 8 basis points in a single day while the 10–2 curve compressed further, signaling persistent refinance headwinds and MSR compression risk.",
    "headline": "Mortgage rates hit 6.66% as long-end yields climb; curve flattens to 45 bps",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 88
}

This exact row, with its canonical preimage, is public at /api/ledger/export. Recompute its hash with the standalone verifier — it shares no code with this site. The chain head is timestamped into Bitcoin.