daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.95 · 2026-09-17
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.96 · 2026-09-21
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.76 · 2026-09-21
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7764.7 · 2026-09-21

Decision: published · computed in 20377 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.89
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-17",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.95,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-21",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.96,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-21",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.76,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-21",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7764.7,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-17",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.95,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-10",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.76
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-21",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.96,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-18",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.01
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-21",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-18",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.76
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-21",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7764.7,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-18",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7650.5
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 235,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.95%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed jumped 19 bps to 6.95%, further widening the 199 bp spread to 10Y Treasury and keeping refi traffic thin."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.96%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury fell 5 bps to 4.96%, but the move did not translate into mortgage relief, leaving the curve mortgage-to-10Y spread near two-percent."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.76%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury held flat at 4.76% as Fed Funds remained anchored at 3.63%, while the 10Y–2Y curve compressed to just 20 bps, a signal of economic caution."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%"
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,764.7",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,764.7, reflecting broader market digestion of rate volatility and persistent uncertainty on policy path."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The one-day 19 bp mortgage surge outpaces the 5 bp 10Y decline, signaling refi incentives remain suppressed and servicers face continued MSR headwinds; the flattened 10–2 curve (now 20 bps) reflects market uncertainty on near-term Fed policy and damps volume across the board.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2060,
      "completionTokens": 383
    },
    "summary": "30-year fixed mortgages rose to 6.95% on a sharp one-day move, while Treasury yields compressed and the 2–10 curve flattened further.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Rates Jump 19 Bps as Long-End Sells Off; 10Y–2Y Curve Flattens to 20 Bps",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 237
}

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