daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.66 · 2026-07-30
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.68 · 2026-07-30
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.23 · 2026-07-30
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7489.72 · 2026-07-31

Decision: published · computed in 16982 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.68,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.23,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-31",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7489.72,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-23",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.58
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.68,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-29",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.23,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-29",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.22
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-05-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-31",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7489.72,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-30",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7437.63
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 95,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.66%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed vaults to 6.66%, up 8 bps in one day and now 198 bps above the 10-year Treasury."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.68%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury holds at 4.68%, a near-flat move that underscores the mortgage jump's source: lender-side margin, not macro."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.23%",
                "caption": "2-year steady at 4.23%, keeping the front end anchored and the curve at a modest 45 bps steep."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds frozen at 3.63% since early June, no change in sight."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,489.72",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closes at 7,489.72, equities holding firm amid rate stability."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination headwinds intensify—the 8 bps mortgage spike against stable Treasuries signals either tightening credit availability or rising risk premiums in the mortgage market, likely to compress purchase-ready volume and extend refi lockout for borrowers just above 6.66%.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 333
    },
    "summary": "A sharp jump in mortgage rates outpaced Treasury moves, pushing the cost of borrowing further from risk-free yields.",
    "headline": "Mortgage spread widens to 198 bps as 30-year fixed hits 6.66%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 97
}

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