daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.43 · 2026-07-02
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.49 · 2026-07-02
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.14 · 2026-07-02
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7483.24 · 2026-07-02

Decision: published · computed in 13005 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.8
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.43,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.49,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.14,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7483.24,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.43,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.49,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.14,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7483.24,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 59,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.43%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed at 6.43% — the spread over 10-year Treasuries widened to 194 basis points, a sign that lenders are pricing in persistent uncertainty and competition."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.49%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury holding above 4.5% at 4.49%, capping any near-term relief for mortgage borrowers."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.14%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury at 4.14% keeps the yield curve inversion shallow, offering little signal of imminent Fed ease."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds at 3.63% (as of mid-June) — no change yet, so operator hedges and ARM floors remain under pressure."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,483.24",
                "caption": "Equity markets near 7,483, stable but offering no tailwind to risk appetite for lower spreads."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "At 6.43%, the mortgage rate remains elevated enough to suppress refi volumes and keep purchase demand under pressure; the widened spread over Treasuries reflects lender margin compression and lingering risk premiums that will keep origination economics tight through the summer.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1790,
      "completionTokens": 348
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed sits 194 basis points over the 10-year Treasury, signaling persistent origination headwinds despite a modest recent dip in yields.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spread Widens as 10-Year Stays Sticky Above 4.5%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 61
}

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