daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.03 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.18 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.87 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7704.13 · 2026-09-24

Decision: published · computed in 28585 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.18,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.87,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7704.13,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-17",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.95
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.18,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-23",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.11
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.87,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-23",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.85
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7704.13,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-23",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7706.03
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 243,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.03%",
                "caption": "The 30-year fixed mortgage rose 8 bps to 7.03%, outpacing both the 10-year and 2-year move."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.18%",
                "caption": "The 10-year Treasury climbed 7 bps to 5.18%, pulling the long end higher in a flattening curve."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.87%",
                "caption": "The 2-year Treasury edged up just 2 bps to 4.87%, a shallow move relative to longer-dated peers."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "The fed funds rate held steady at 3.63%, unchanged since the prior close."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,704.13",
                "caption": "The S&P 500 closed at 7,704.13, a neutral reading absent directional bias for rate markets."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination economics are tightening: the 30-year mortgage premium over 10-years expanded to 185 bps, absorbing deposit and servicing costs in a tighter margin. Refinance incentives remain depressed as the 7% mortgage compounds monthly payment drag for borrowers; prepay risk stays low, but MSR valuations face ongoing compression from elevated rates and flattening curve dynamics.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 389
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year mortgage reached 7.03% on a steeper-than-curve move, while the 10–2 spread compressed to 31 bps, signaling persistent long-end pressure.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spreads Widen as Rate Curve Flattens; 30-Year Fixed Jumps to 7.03%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 245
}

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