daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.03 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.18 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.87 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7743.41 · 2026-09-25

Decision: published · computed in 14653 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.18,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.87,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7743.41,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-17",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.95
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.18,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-23",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.11
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.87,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-23",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.85
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7743.41,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7704.13
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 246,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.03%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage at 7.03%, up 8 bps in one day; the highest level in this series since spring."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.18%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 5.18%, up 7 bps; the bulk of recent upward pressure in the yield curve."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.87%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury at 4.87%, up only 2 bps; the curve continues to steepen at the front end."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63%, suggesting no policy move in the interim."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,743.41",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,743.41; equities stable amid the rise in Treasury yields."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "With the 30-year mortgage now 185 bps above the 10-year Treasury, refinance incentive continues to erode for borrowers locked in pre-2024 rates; origination appeal tilts further toward purchases in rate-sensitive segments, while MSR duration exposure flattens as prepay risk diminishes.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 353
    },
    "summary": "The 10-year Treasury climbed 7 bps to 5.18%, pulling the 30-year fixed mortgage to 7.03% and expanding the mortgage–10-year spread to 185 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year pushes higher; refi window narrows further",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 248
}

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