daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.03 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.17 · 2026-09-25
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.81 · 2026-09-25
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7743.41 · 2026-09-25

Decision: published · computed in 20313 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.89
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.17,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.81,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7743.41,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-17",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.95
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.17,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.18
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.81,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.87
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-25",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7743.41,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7704.13
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 251,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.03%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed jumped 8 bps to 7.03%, the sharpest single-day move in the sample window, widening the lock-up cost for borrowers."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.17%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 5.17%, down 1 bp, but the mortgage–10y spread remains wide at 186 bps, keeping the all-in cost of conforming originations elevated."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.81%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury fell 6 bps to 4.81%, while the 10-year rose fractionally, compressing the curve to 36 bps—near-inverted territory reflecting front-end pressure."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate steady at 3.63% as of 01-Aug, a stale snapshot; near-term policy signals will drive near-end yields more than the headline rate."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,743.41",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,743.41 on 25-Sep, neutral backdrop; equity weakness would typically steepen yield curves and ease mortgage pressure, but curve flattening dominates today."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Rising mortgage costs are squeezing origination margins and shrinking the refi window; the flattened curve signals renewed rate-path caution, which may dampen purchase demand and lock servicing cohorts into lower-prepay-risk scenarios in the near term.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 423
    },
    "summary": "Mortgage rates hit their highest in days while the 10–2 yield curve compressed to 36 bps on falling short-end Treasury yields.",
    "headline": "30-Year Mortgage Jumps 8 bps to 7.03%; Curve Flattens on 2Y Decline",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 253
}

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