daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.03 · 2026-09-24
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.26 · 2026-09-29
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.89 · 2026-09-29
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7670.84 · 2026-09-29

Decision: published · computed in 11416 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.84
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-29",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.26,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-29",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.89,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-29",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7670.84,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.03,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-17",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.95
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-29",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.26,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-28",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.24
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-29",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.89,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-28",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.92
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-29",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7670.84,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-28",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7683.69
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 256,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.03%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage reached 7.03%, up 8 bps in one session—the largest single-day jump in weeks, narrowing origination volume incentives at purchase and refi."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.26%",
                "caption": "The 10-year Treasury ticked to 5.26% (up 2 bps), anchoring the long end of the mortgage curve and outpacing shorter-duration moves."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.89%",
                "caption": "The 2-year held firm at 4.89% (down 3 bps), leaving the 10–2 spread at a flat 37 bps—a compressed curve that signals tight credit and weak refinance demand."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds rate unchanged at 3.63%, reflecting a steady policy stance amid the market's repricing at the longer end."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,670.84",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,670.84, showing equities resilient despite the rise in rates and Treasury volatility."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The sharp daily move in mortgage rates—driven by a 2 bps rise in the 10-year—signals renewed volatility in origination economics; servicers face tighter MSR hedging windows as the curve flattens and prepayment models grow more sensitive to small day-to-day swings.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 415
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed jumped 8 bps in a single day while the 10–2 curve compressed further, narrowing refinance incentive and sharpening rate-risk management challenges for servicers.",
    "headline": "Mortgage rates spike to 7.03% as long-end Treasuries climb; curve flattens to 37 bps",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 258
}

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