daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.28 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.29 · 2026-09-30
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.88 · 2026-09-30
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.75 · 2026-09-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7651.54 · 2026-09-30

Decision: published · computed in 13327 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-30",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.29,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-30",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.88,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-30",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7651.54,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 7.03
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.29,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-29",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.26
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-30",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.88,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-29",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.89
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-30",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7651.54,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-29",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7670.84
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 259,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.28%",
                "caption": "30-year mortgages jumped to 7.28%, up 25 bps in a single day—the largest single-day move in the validated window."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.29%",
                "caption": "The 10-year Treasury rose modestly to 5.29%, gaining only 3 bps, leaving the bulk of the mortgage move unexplained by Treasury action alone."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.88%",
                "caption": "The 2-year was nearly flat at 4.88%, down 1 bp, as the curve steepened by 41 bps overall."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.75%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds rose 12 bps to 3.75%, suggesting hawkish sentiment in near-term rate expectations."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,651.54",
                "caption": "The S&P 500 closed at 7,651.54, showing no sharp equity collapse to cushion the rates move."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination volumes face immediate headwind from the 7.28% mortgage rate; the 199 bps mortgage–10Y spread remains wide, signaling continued pricing pressure on loan economics and refi incentive near zero at current rates.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2064,
      "completionTokens": 358
    },
    "summary": "A sharp one-day spike in 30-year mortgages outpaced a modest Treasury move, widening the mortgage-to-10Y spread as the curve steepens.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Rates Jump 25 Bps as Treasury Curve Steepens and Fed Funds Rise",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 261
}

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