daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.28 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.24 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.78 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.75 · 2026-09-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7666.45 · 2026-10-01

Decision: published · computed in 15387 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.24,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7666.45,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 7.03
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.24,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-30",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.29
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-30",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.88
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7666.45,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-30",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7651.54
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 262,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.28%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed at 7.28%, up 25 bps in one day — the largest single-day move in the readings."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.24%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 5.24%, down 5 bps on the day, providing almost no relief to mortgage pricing."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.78%",
                "caption": "2-year at 4.78%, down 10 bps, but the 46 bps curve steepness offers limited refinance tail."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.75%",
                "caption": "Fed funds at 3.75%, up 12 bps since last month, signaling tighter monetary conditions."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,666.45",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,666, stable relative to rate moves, showing equity–bond decoupling."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination economics have tightened sharply: the 25 bps one-day jump in mortgage costs will compress margins on new locks and reduce refi volume immediately. MSR holders face elevated prepay risk if rates stabilize here, but the 204 bps spread offers some cushion against forced hedging losses.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2064,
      "completionTokens": 348
    },
    "summary": "Thirty-year fixed jumped to 7.28% while the 10/2 curve compressed, widening the mortgage–Treasury gap to 204 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage rates spike 25 bps as curve flattens and spread blows out",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 264
}

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