daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.69 · 2026-08-06
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.65 · 2026-08-07
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.19 · 2026-08-07
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7753.11 · 2026-08-10

Decision: published · computed in 19563 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.83
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-06",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.69,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-07",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.65,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-07",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-10",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7753.11,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-06",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.69,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-30",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-07",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.65,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-06",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.69
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-07",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-06",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.25
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-10",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7753.11,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-07",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7757.64
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 118,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.69%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage: 6.69%, up 3 bps in one day."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.65%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury: 4.65%, down 4 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.19%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury: 4.19%, down 6 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate: 3.63%, unchanged."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,753.11",
                "caption": "S&P 500: 7,753.11 as of August 10."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "A widening mortgage-Treasury spread—now at 204 bps—signals lenders are pricing elevated servicing and basis risk; combined with a steeper 10Y–2Y curve (46 bps), the environment favors origination volume but threatens MSR valuations if prepay incentives remain muted at these mortgage levels.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 312
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 3 bps to 6.69% while the 10-year treasury fell 4 bps, pushing the conventional-to-Treasury gap to a notable 204 basis points.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens to 204 bps as Short End Softens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 120
}

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