daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.28 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.24 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.78 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.75 · 2026-09-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7722.72 · 2026-10-02

Decision: published · computed in 12538 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.24,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-10-02",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7722.72,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 7.03
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.24,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-30",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.29
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-30",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.88
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-02",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7722.72,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-10-01",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7666.45
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 266,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.28%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed jumped to 7.28%, up 25 bps in one day—the sharpest single-day move in the validated window, erasing any recent refi incentive."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.24%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury fell 5 bps to 5.24%, but the longer mortgage rate rose anyway, widening the 30–10 spread to 204 bps—a sign of mortgage-specific repricing risk."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.78%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury down 10 bps to 4.78%, but the curve spread compressed to just 46 bps, reflecting shallow rate-cut expectations ahead."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.75%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate rose 12 bps to 3.75% in one day, signaling tighter near-term liquidity and lifting the floor for all borrowing costs."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,722.72",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,722.72 as of Oct. 2—stable backdrop, but not a driver of today's mortgage repricing."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "A 25 bps spike in mortgage rates in a single day kills any refi momentum and locks borrowers into higher servicing yield for existing pools; the flat 46 bps curve spread hints at terminal-rate anxiety, keeping origination volumes pinched and hedging costs elevated for new production.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2064,
      "completionTokens": 422
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed hit 7.28% on a sharp one-day move higher while the 10–2 curve flattened to just 46 bps, signaling mixed rate expectations and persistent origination headwinds.",
    "headline": "Mortgage rates jump 25 bps as Treasury curve steepens; refi appeal evaporates",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 268
}

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