daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 7.28 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 5.24 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.78 · 2026-10-01
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.75 · 2026-09-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7722.72 · 2026-10-02

Decision: published · computed in 11602 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.24,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-10-02",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7722.72,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 7.28,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-24",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 7.03
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 5.24,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-30",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 5.29
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-30",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.88
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.75,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-10-02",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7722.72,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-10-01",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7666.45
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 267,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "7.28%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed jumped 25 bps to 7.28%, the sharpest single-day move in the dataset, pushing affordability stress deeper into production pipelines."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "5.24%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury eased 5 bps to 5.24%, but failed to pull mortgages down—a sign mortgage spreads are repricing risk, not retreating."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.78%",
                "caption": "2-year note fell 10 bps to 4.78%, steepening the 10–2 curve to 46 bps and reflecting a shift away from front-end rate expectations."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.75%",
                "caption": "Fed funds effective rate rose 12 bps to 3.75% on the month, holding above the long-term neutral band and sustaining borrowing-cost pressure."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,722.72",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed 7,722.72, posting modest gains amid rate volatility and underscoring muted equity enthusiasm for higher-for-longer monetary conditions."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The 204 bps mortgage–Treasury spread now prices meaningful prepayment and servicer duration risk; origination volume faces sustained compression at this level, and MSR hedges tied to lower rate paths will underperform if the curve holds steep.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2064,
      "completionTokens": 384
    },
    "summary": "A 25 basis point mortgage pop and widening 10–2 spread signal duration rotation out of short rates as Fed policy anchors.",
    "headline": "30-year mortgage tops 7.28% on curve steepening; origination headwinds intensify",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 269
}

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