daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.67 · 2026-08-13
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.68 · 2026-08-12
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.2 · 2026-08-12
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7748.5 · 2026-08-12

Decision: published · computed in 19890 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.67,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-12",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.68,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-12",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.2,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-12",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7748.5,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.67,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-06",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.69
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-12",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.68,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-11",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.7
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-12",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.2,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-11",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.22
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-12",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7748.5,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-11",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7728.2
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 123,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.67%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgages at 6.67%, down 2bp on the day—still pricing a wide 199bp cushion over the 10-year."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.68%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury yield at 4.68%, unchanged from yesterday, holding just above the 2-year as the long end resists further compression."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.2%",
                "caption": "2-year yield at 4.2%, holding steady despite a flat curve; the 48bp inversion to the 10-year persists."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds target at 3.63%, unchanged at its July 1 level; no move in the policy rate since then."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,748.5",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,748.5, off 0.02bp; equities steady, risk-off sentiment muted."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "With mortgage-to-Treasury spreads holding near session wides and the curve staying flat, secondary market hedging costs remain elevated; refinance incentive stays muted, favoring refi-averse MSR risk profiles but pressuring origination volume in a 6.67% rate environment.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 364
    },
    "summary": "30-year mortgages at 6.67% sit 199bp wide of 10-year Treasuries; the 10–2 curve remains inverted at 48bp.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-Treasury Spread Holds Above 200bp as Curve Flattens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 125
}

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