daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.67 · 2026-08-13
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.63 · 2026-08-13
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.15 · 2026-08-13
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7785.76 · 2026-08-14

Decision: published · computed in 9756 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.67,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.63,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.15,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-14",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7785.76,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.67,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-06",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.69
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-12",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.68
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.15,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-12",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.2
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-14",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7785.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-13",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7798.99
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 129,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.67%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.67%, lagging the longer Treasury's 5 bp drop."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.63%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury yield dropped 5 bps to 4.63%, leading the selloff in long rates."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.15%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury matched the 10-year move, falling 5 bps to 4.15%."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate held steady at 3.63% as of the last reading (2026-07-01), offering no new signals on near-term cuts."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,785.76",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,785.76 on 2026-08-14, reflecting broad equity stability amid flat Fed policy."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "At 204 bps, the mortgage-Treasury gap is wide enough to support origination margins despite tepid refinance incentive—the 30-year is still 4 bps above the prior close and well above refi thresholds for most portfolios. The flattening 10Y–2Y curve (48 bps) flags medium-term prepay risk if the Fed holds; servicers should monitor duration positioning carefully.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 393
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed mortgage tightened 2 bps to 6.67% while the 10-year Treasury fell 5 bps to 4.63%, pushing the production spread to its widest point in the validated window.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-Treasury spread widens to 204 bps as long rates stabilize",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 131
}

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