daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.67 · 2026-08-13
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.72 · 2026-08-17
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.19 · 2026-08-17
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7745.06 · 2026-08-17

Decision: published · computed in 23911 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.89
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.67,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-17",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.72,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-17",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-17",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7745.06,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-13",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.67,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-06",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.69
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-17",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.72,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-14",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.68
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-17",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-14",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.17
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-17",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7745.06,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-14",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7785.76
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 137,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.67%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage at 6.67%, down 2 bps in a day; originators see little refi tailwind at this level."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.72%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury at 4.72%, up 4 bps; longer rates still grinding higher."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.19%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury at 4.19%, up 2 bps; curve steepens as short end lags."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds unchanged at 3.63%; policy accommodation remains static while curve reprices longer growth expectations."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,745.06"
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The widening curve and sticky mortgage spreads signal refinance incentive remains muted despite the small rate move down; origination volume likely stays constrained by the elevated 6.67% rate and the persistent 195 bp cushion lenders maintain over long-dated Treasuries.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 301
    },
    "summary": "10Y–2Y spreads to 53 bps while 30-year mortgages tick down 2 bps, keeping the mortgage–10Y gap at 195 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage spread widens as Treasury curve steepens; 30-year holds above 6.6%",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 139
}

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