daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.65 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.69 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.19 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7674.37 · 2026-08-21

Decision: published · computed in 12144 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.69,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7674.37,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-13",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.69,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-19",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.65
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-19",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.19
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7674.37,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7641.16
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 147,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.65%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage fell 2 bps to 6.65%, a modest decline that masks deteriorating economics if wholesale funding costs hold."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.69%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury rose 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps and squeezing secondary market margins."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.19%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury held flat at 4.19%, keeping the 10–2 curve at 50 bps and signaling no near-term policy reversal."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of July, consistent with a stable policy stance through mid-August."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,674.37",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,674 reflects equity stability, but rates action dominates mortgage economics this week."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Wider mortgage spreads despite a small rate drop signal lender margin compression and sticky refinance disincentives—origination incentives remain weak and prepay risk stays muted at elevated coupons.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1990,
      "completionTokens": 349
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed ticked down 2 bps to 6.65% while the 10-year rose 4 bps to 4.69%, pushing the mortgage-Treasury spread to 196 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage spreads widen as 10-year yields climb; curve stays shallow",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 149
}

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