daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.65 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.69 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.19 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7674.37 · 2026-08-21

Decision: published · computed in 9507 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.69,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7674.37,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-13",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.69,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-19",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.65
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.19,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-19",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.19
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7674.37,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7641.16
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 148,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.65%",
                "caption": "30-year mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps — but spread to 10-year Treasury has expanded to 196 bps, narrowing lender cushion."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.69%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury climbed 4 bps to 4.69%, driving the curve compression and lifting the mortgage–Treasury wedge."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.19%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury flat at 4.19%, leaving the 10–2 spread at just 50 bps and signaling continued monetary tightness."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate steady at 3.63% as of early July; no change in the policy anchor."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,674.37",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,674.37; equities hold firm despite rate volatility."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The flattening curve and widening mortgage spread signal tighter origination margins: servicers face steeper competitive pressure on rate locks as net servicing income compresses, while refinance incentives remain muted in a 6.65% rate environment.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1990,
      "completionTokens": 375
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year mortgage edged down 2 bps while the 10-year Treasury climbed 4 bps, pushing the mortgage–Treasury spread to 196 bps and leaving the 10–2 curve at just 50 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spreads Widen as 10-Year Yields Rise; Curve Flattens to 50 Bps",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 150
}

This exact row, with its canonical preimage, is public at /api/ledger/export. Recompute its hash with the standalone verifier — it shares no code with this site. The chain head is timestamped into Bitcoin.