daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.65 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.74 · 2026-08-21
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.24 · 2026-08-21
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7674.37 · 2026-08-21

Decision: published · computed in 16122 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.89
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.74,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.24,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7674.37,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-13",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.74,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.69
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.24,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.19
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-21",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7674.37,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7641.16
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 154,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.65%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage at 6.65%, down 2 bps in a day, holding despite the move in longer rates."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.74%",
                "caption": "10-year treasury climbed 5 bps to 4.74%, pushing the primary driver of mortgage-spread widening."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.24%",
                "caption": "2-year treasury also rose 5 bps to 4.24%, keeping the curve flat at 50 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate unchanged at 3.63% as of 1 July, last reported reading held in place."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,674.37",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,674, a modest backdrop; equity strength has not yet pulled rates meaningfully higher."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The 191 bp spread between 30-year mortgages and 10-year treasuries now sits at the upper end of recent trading; for originators, this signals persistent refi-aversion and tighter origination competition, while servicers face manageable but non-trivial prepay risk if treasuries reverse.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1992,
      "completionTokens": 340
    },
    "summary": "Longer-dated treasuries climbed while mortgage rates held steady, pushing the rate-lock incentive wider for borrowers still on the sidelines.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens to 191 bps as 10Y Yields Rise",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 156
}

This exact row, with its canonical preimage, is public at /api/ledger/export. Recompute its hash with the standalone verifier — it shares no code with this site. The chain head is timestamped into Bitcoin.