daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.65 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.7 · 2026-08-24
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.24 · 2026-08-24
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7652.86 · 2026-08-24

Decision: published · computed in 14087 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.89
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-24",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.7,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-24",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.24,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-24",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7652.86,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-13",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.7,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-21",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.74
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-24",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.24,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-21",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.24
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-24",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7652.86,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-21",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7674.37
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 157,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.65%",
                "caption": "30-year mortgage at 6.65%, down just 2 bps on the day—the recent softness in longer rates is barely moving origination incentives."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.7%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury fell 4 bps to 4.7%, pulling the long end down while the 2-year held flat."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.24%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury unchanged at 4.24%, anchoring near-term rate expectations as the front end of the curve resists pressure."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate locked at 3.63% (last read 2026-07-01), providing a stable nominal floor while longer rates compress."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,652.86",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,652.86, reflecting modest equity demand that has not yet shifted duration appetite meaningfully into fixed income."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Lenders face a narrower window for volume growth: the 195 bps mortgage-Treasury spread remains elevated despite yesterday's Treasury softening, pinching both origination competitiveness and the incentive for refinance waves. MSR holders should watch for further curve steepening to unlock prepay relief.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2060,
      "completionTokens": 360
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year mortgage stayed near 6.65% while intermediate Treasuries dipped, leaving the 10Y–2Y curve at a modest 46 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-Treasury Spread Holds Firm as Curve Stabilizes",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 159
}

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