daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.65 · 2026-08-20
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.64 · 2026-08-25
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.17 · 2026-08-25
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7677.28 · 2026-08-25

Decision: published · computed in 6152 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.84
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-25",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.64,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-25",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.17,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-25",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7677.28,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-20",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.65,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-13",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-25",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.64,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-24",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.7
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-25",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.17,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-24",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.24
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-25",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7677.28,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-24",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7652.86
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 161,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.65%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed slipped 2 bps to 6.65%, lagging the Treasury selloff by over 4 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.64%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury fell 6 bps to 4.64%, dragging the 10y–2y curve to just 47 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.17%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury dropped 7 bps to 4.17%, signaling softer near-term rate expectations."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds unchanged at 3.63%, keeping policy anchored while long rates drift."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,677.28",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,677—equity stability amid yield decline offers no new prepay signal."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Lenders face persistent rate compression in origination: borrowers see only marginal mortgage relief despite Treasury rally, which narrows refi incentive and pressures purchase volume unless Treasury yields sustain a sharper decline. Wider mortgage spreads also signal elevated prepay risk and hedging costs if rates stabilize here.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 354
    },
    "summary": "The 10-year Treasury fell 6 bps to 4.64% while the 30-year fixed mortgage ticked down just 2 bps, leaving the spread between them at 201 bps—near the upper end of recent ranges.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-Treasury Spread Widens as Long-End Yields Compress",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 163
}

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