daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.66 · 2026-08-27
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.73 · 2026-08-28
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.34 · 2026-08-28
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7711.76 · 2026-08-28

Decision: published · computed in 20549 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.89
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.73,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.34,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7711.76,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-27",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.66,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-20",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.65
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.73,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.67
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.34,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.2
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-06-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-28",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7711.76,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7730.99
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 176,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.66%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage held at 6.66%, up 1 basis point—a marginal move masking the real pressure from the sharp repricing at the short end."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.73%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury rose 6 basis points to 4.73%, a smaller move than the 2-year, further flattening the curve to just 39 basis points."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.34%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury jumped 14 basis points to 4.34%, the sharpest single-day move in the mix and a signal of near-term rate expectations shifting higher."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 3.63% as of early July, now deeply stale; the short-end repricing suggests market positioning independent of Fed action."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,711.76",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,711.76, up modestly, providing no tailwind to risk appetite or mortgage demand."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "With the 10–2 curve at just 39 bps and the mortgage–10Y spread now 193 bps, servicing platforms face sustained prepayment pressure if rates hold, while origination volume remains throttled by a 6.66% rate environment that continues to suppress demand.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 390
    },
    "summary": "The 2-year Treasury surged 14 basis points in a single day while the 30-year mortgage lag widened, signaling renewed origination headwinds and prepay risk.",
    "headline": "Mortgage–Treasury Spread Widens as Shorter Rates Jump; Curve Remains Flat",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 178
}

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