daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.43 · 2026-07-02
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.48 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.17 · 2026-07-01
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-06-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7483.24 · 2026-07-02

Decision: published · computed in 8189 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.86
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.43,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.48,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.17,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7483.24,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.43,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.48,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.17,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-06-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-07-02",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7483.24,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 56,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.43%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed holds firm at 6.43%, offering minimal refi appeal relative to the existing stock."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.48%",
                "caption": "The 10-year at 4.48% anchors long-end pricing; the 31-bp spread to the 2-year reflects persistent Fed terminal-rate expectations."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.17%",
                "caption": "The 2-year at 4.17% reflects near-term rate expectations; a steeper curve typically cushions shorter-duration hedges but pressures long-duration MSR value."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "The Fed Funds Rate at 3.63% (as of June 1) anchors the policy floor; the gap to the 30-year suggests measured long-term inflation pricing."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,483.24",
                "caption": "The S&P 500 at 7,483 shows equity resilience, a signal that credit conditions remain loose and refinance demand may not spike soon."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Refi incentive stays muted at 6.43%, capping origination momentum; the wider curve signals duration risk for MSR portfolios if long rates begin to normalize downward.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 1790,
      "completionTokens": 349
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed rate remains sticky despite a modest 31-basis-point steepening in the 10-year/2-year spread.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Rate Holds Above 6.4% as Treasury Curve Steepens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 58
}

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