daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.71 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.77 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.34 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7718.6 · 2026-09-04

Decision: published · computed in 6812 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.92
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.77,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.34,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7718.6,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.77,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-02",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.79
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.34,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-02",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.39
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7718.6,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7747.71
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 190,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.71%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed rose 5 bps to 6.71%, near recent peaks."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.77%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury eased 2 bps to 4.77%, offering slight relief at the long end."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.34%",
                "caption": "2-year note fell 5 bps to 4.34%, steepening the curve slightly to 43 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds held steady at 3.63%, no policy shift in the data lag."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,718.6",
                "caption": "S&P 500 reached 7,718.6, reflecting equity resilience amid rate persistence."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "At 194 bps, the mortgage-to-10-year spread remains well above historical norms, keeping refi incentives anemic and origination volume under pressure; operators should expect continued cashflow drag and MSR yield compression until the gap compresses.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 318
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed climbed 5 bps to 6.71% while the 10-year eased, pushing the mortgage–Treasury gap to 194 bps and signaling persistent origination headwinds.",
    "headline": "Mortgage-to-Treasury Spread Widens as Long End Softens",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 192
}

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