daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.71 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.77 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.34 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7718.6 · 2026-09-04

Decision: published · computed in 18098 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.83
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.77,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.34,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7718.6,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.77,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-02",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.79
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.34,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-02",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.39
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7718.6,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7747.71
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 195,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.71%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage climbed 5 bps to 6.71%, the highest in this observation window."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.77%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury eased 2 bps to 4.77%, creating divergence with mortgage rates."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.34%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury fell 5 bps to 4.34%, steepening the 2–10 curve to 43 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate held steady at 3.63% as of month-end August."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,718.6",
                "caption": "S&P 500 closed at 7,718.6, reflecting broader equity appetite amid duration repricing."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "For loan originators, the 194 bps mortgage-to-10Y spread is elevated, signaling tighter secondary market margins and reduced refi incentive as portfolio rates lag benchmark repricing. Servicers face compressing yield on bulk sales and less refinance volume to offset prepayment hedging costs.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 352
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed mortgage rose 5 bps to 6.71% while the 10-year Treasury fell 2 bps, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 194 bps—its widest reading in this set.",
    "headline": "Mortgage–Treasury Spread Widens as 30Y Climbs While 10Y Drifts Lower",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 197
}

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