daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.71 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.78 · 2026-09-04
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.37 · 2026-09-04
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7673.52 · 2026-09-08

Decision: published · computed in 20005 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.78
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.37,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7673.52,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.77
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.37,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.34
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7673.52,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-04",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7718.6
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 200,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.71%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage climbed 5 bps to 6.71%, keeping the barrier to refi activity intact."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.78%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury inched up 1 bps to 4.78%, tracking a modest long-end drift."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.37%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury rose 3 bps to 4.37%, steepening near-term funding costs slightly."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed funds rate held at 3.63%, leaving the policy floor unchanged as the curve works at its shallow 41 bps spread."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,673.52"
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "The 193 bps mortgage–Treasury spread leaves little room for rate compression—origination volume remains hostage to absolute rate levels rather than refi tailwinds, and the flat curve constrains prepay modeling. Servicers face stable but unrewarding MSR valuation into any near-term rate shock.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 314
    },
    "summary": "The 30-year fixed pushed 5 bps higher to 6.71% while the 10–2 curve flattened to 41 bps, keeping refinance incentives muted and duration risk compressed.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spread Widens as Long Rates Edge Up; Curve Remains Shallow",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 202
}

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