daily-brief · MarketData+BriefComposer

{}

• FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage — 6.71 · 2026-09-03
• FRED · 10-Year Treasury — 4.78 · 2026-09-04
• FRED · 2-Year Treasury — 4.37 · 2026-09-04
• FRED · Fed Funds Rate — 3.63 · 2026-08-01
• FRED · S&P 500 — 7673.52 · 2026-09-08

Decision: published · computed in 26587 ms

5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.

{
  "gate": {
    "pass": true,
    "reason": "5/5 series, all sourced and fresh.",
    "confidence": 0.78
  },
  "market": {
    "sources": [
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US",
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "name": "FRED · 30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "name": "FRED · 10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "seriesId": "DGS10"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS2",
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "name": "FRED · 2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.37,
        "seriesId": "DGS2"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS",
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "name": "FRED · Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS"
      },
      {
        "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SP500",
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "name": "FRED · S&P 500",
        "value": 7673.52,
        "seriesId": "SP500"
      }
    ],
    "readings": [
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-03",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
        "value": 6.71,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-08-27",
        "seriesId": "MORTGAGE30US",
        "prevValue": 6.66
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "10-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.78,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "DGS10",
        "prevValue": 4.77
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-04",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "2-Year Treasury",
        "value": 4.37,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-03",
        "seriesId": "DGS2",
        "prevValue": 4.34
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-08-01",
        "unit": "percent",
        "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
        "value": 3.63,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-07-01",
        "seriesId": "FEDFUNDS",
        "prevValue": 3.63
      },
      {
        "asOf": "2026-09-08",
        "unit": "index",
        "label": "S&P 500",
        "value": 7673.52,
        "prevAsOf": "2026-09-04",
        "seriesId": "SP500",
        "prevValue": 7718.6
      }
    ]
  },
  "briefId": 201,
  "composed": {
    "spec": {
      "root": {
        "kind": "Stack",
        "children": [
          {
            "cols": 3,
            "kind": "Grid",
            "children": [
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "30-Year Fixed Mortgage",
                "value": "6.71%",
                "caption": "30-year fixed mortgage rose 5 bps to 6.71%, pushing the mortgage–10Y spread to 193 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "10-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.78%",
                "caption": "10-year Treasury edged up 1 bp to 4.78%, holding the curve slope at 41 bps."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "2-Year Treasury",
                "value": "4.37%",
                "caption": "2-year Treasury climbed 3 bps to 4.37%, tightening the short end."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "Fed Funds Rate",
                "value": "3.63%",
                "caption": "Fed Funds Rate held at 3.63% as of early August, reflecting no recent policy moves."
              },
              {
                "kind": "Stat",
                "label": "S&P 500",
                "value": "7,673.52",
                "caption": "S&P 500 at 7,673.52 reflects continued risk appetite, though mortgage repricing is decoupled."
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "kind": "Text",
            "text": "What it means for your shop",
            "emphasis": "mono"
          },
          {
            "kind": "Callout",
            "text": "Origination economics are compressing: the wider mortgage–10Y spread (193 bps) signals elevated priced-in credit and servicing risk, while the flattening curve (41 bps) constrains refi incentive and hedging flexibility. Operators should model tighter lock–close margins if rates remain sticky here.",
            "tone": "info"
          }
        ]
      },
      "title": "markets & rates"
    },
    "label": "autonomous · AI-generated",
    "usage": {
      "promptTokens": 2062,
      "completionTokens": 358
    },
    "summary": "The 10Y–2Y spread tightens to 41 bps while 30-year fixed mortgages climb 5 bps, pushing the mortgage–10Y gap to 193 bps.",
    "headline": "Mortgage Spread Widens as Curve Flattens; 30Y Mortgage Nudges Higher",
    "disclaimer": "Not financial advice. Generated autonomously from public Federal Reserve data."
  },
  "artifactId": 203
}

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